Statistics Canada's Q1 GDP print confirmed this morning that Canada is technically in recession. The data is thin enough to argue either way. What it cannot avoid doing is forcing the Bank of Canada's hand at its June 10 decision.

Canada's technical recession arrived the same month the Spring Economic Update extended the Home Buyers' Plan repayment grace period to 2028. The two events together reshape what advisors should be telling RRSP-holding clients who are planning a home purchase.

The day's synthesis: TD and NBC delivered the earnings the market needed. Then U.S. PCE inflation and the Hormuz MOU status together produced a closing read the morning could not have anticipated.

Statistics Canada releases Q1 2026 GDP figures Friday morning. The Bank of Canada meets in 13 days. The data arrives into an environment where the BoC has explicitly left both cuts and hikes on the table -- making the read-through more consequential than a normal quarterly release.

The CRA confirmed Tuesday that the prescribed rate stays at 3% through September 30. For clients with higher-income spouses or family trusts, the income-splitting opportunity has been available for over a year. The question is how many of them have not yet acted.

Three major Canadian banks topped Q2 estimates and raised dividends. The TSX still closed lower. Understanding why that happened tells you what the June 10 Bank of Canada decision now hinges on.

Tuesday's U.S. strikes in Iran collapsed Monday's peace rally. BMO and Scotiabank beat estimates this morning but the market is opening under a different set of assumptions than it held 24 hours ago.

Inflation accelerated on energy. Core held just above 2%. The BoC said it would look through the shock. That position is getting harder to maintain as the Hormuz closure drags into its fourth month.

BMO and Scotiabank beat estimates this morning. The wealth management surge inside those results is a planning signal, not just a market story.

Oil fell more than 10% this week as Hormuz de-escalation advanced. The TSX financials fell with it. That contradiction contains the most important setup of the next 48 hours.

April CPI hit 2.8% on war-premium energy costs, yet core inflation fell to a five-year low. The Iran MOU may resolve the contradiction -- but it creates a new one for the Bank of Canada ahead of June 10.

A ceasefire framework that could reopen the strait within 60 days changes the math for clients sitting on war-premium gains in energy and gold. The planning window is narrower than it looks.

WTI fell toward $91 today as Iran deal proximity reshaped the energy market faster than most May frameworks assumed. The GoC 5-year eased to 3.12%. Canadian bank Q2 earnings begin Tuesday. These three facts, held together, produce a conclusion none of the morning desks could reach individually.

WTI's 5% peace deal drop hits energy -- 17% of the TSX -- but hands a tailwind to financials, consumer, and rate-sensitives. Whether the index holds near its all-time high depends on which side of that trade wins Monday. Bank earnings this week are the next catalyst.

WTI's 5% decline on peace deal headlines shifts the Bank of Canada's June 10 decision framework -- but only if the drop holds. Macklem's April 29 baseline assumed Brent at $90 in Q2. That assumption is now being tested in real time.

The April 8 U.S.-Iran ceasefire has held in name while intermittent fighting has continued since May 4. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed. Understanding the structure of the talks tells advisors more about the range of outcomes than any single diplomatic headline.