WTI's 3% drop on Iran deal proximity is not the Market Desk story today. It is the Economy Desk story for July 15, and the Bank of Canada's communications framework has not caught up yet.

WTI dropped 4% premarket Friday. The S&P 500 added 1.75% Thursday. Nasdaq jumped 2.54%. The TSX faces the same sector rotation it saw in April, only this time the war premium has further to unwind.

Trump cancelled Thursday's strikes and said a deal is basically done. Brent fell below $86. The Hormuz re-rating that lifted Canadian energy for three months is now running in reverse.

Trump's late-session pivot toward an Iran deal collapsed the inflation risk premium that had been holding the Bank of Canada frozen at 2.25% for five straight decisions. What the market is now pricing is not the same BoC that spoke on Wednesday.

The TSX composite fell approximately 0.3% on Wednesday as base metals, technology, and rate-sensitive sectors absorbed the Bank of Canada's two-way risk language while energy names partially offset the decline on renewed Hormuz escalation. The session illustrated a structural divide in the Canadian market that has persisted since late February.

The April 8 ceasefire between the US and Iran has effectively collapsed. US strikes on June 9 and 10 resumed the kinetic phase of the conflict. Iran retaliated against US bases in Bahrain, Jordan, and Kuwait. The Strait of Hormuz remains near-closed. For Canadian portfolios, the question is not whether the war premium returns. It is whether the market has correctly priced the duration of the disruption.

WTI has dropped more than $20 from its April peak. Clients sitting on large energy gains are feeling something Kahneman identified in 1979. The advisor who understands the disposition effect will hold them in place. The one who does not will watch them lock in a tax bill and miss the next leg.

The language shift nobody noticed: why Macklem's "near-term" replaced "immediate" at exactly the moment WTI hit $90 on a seventh consecutive inventory draw.

The TSX shed 67 points Tuesday as rate-sensitive financials and utilities dragged while energy held. The composite is navigating two separate markets dressed as one index.

Iran and Israel exchanged strikes over the weekend and re-established a ceasefire by Monday. The Strait of Hormuz remained closed throughout. The war premium in oil is not a spike. It is a floor.

WTI broke below $88 on ceasefire headlines that haven't been formalized. The Bank of Canada speaks tomorrow with guidance built around elevated energy. The five-basis-point bond move doesn't price what Macklem now has to say.

The index closed June 8 up 0.19%, reversing the geopolitical fear premium from the weekend strikes. What it did not recover was Friday's 2.3% selloff, which was driven by a blowout Canadian jobs print and a bond yield spike that has nothing to do with Iran. That distinction matters for what the BoC statement does tomorrow.

A US Army Apache helicopter crashed near the Strait of Hormuz this morning. The ceasefire that broke over the weekend is holding again, barely. Oil is at $89. The TSX energy sector is up 66% over twelve months. The question Canadian advisors should be positioning for is not another escalation. It is a deal.

A hold at 2.25% tomorrow is a foregone conclusion. All 34 economists surveyed expect it. What is not foregone is the language. The Bank must reconcile a technical recession in Q1, a CPI print at 2.8%, and a renewed Hormuz escalation in a single statement. That reconciliation tells advisors which direction the next move goes.

Markets partially clawed back Friday's selloff on Monday. The same variable driving the recovery is the one that moved April CPI to a two-year high. Macklem's Wednesday statement will have to resolve the contradiction.

The TSX hit 35,217 Thursday, then shed 803 points Friday on a jobs report that repriced the Fed. The sector rotation inside that decline is the real story.