The S&P/TSX Composite closed at 35,697.49 on September 11, down 3.7 percent from its August high, even as WTI settled above $100 a barrel for the second time in a week.

The Bank of Canada has left its rate at 2.25 percent through seven consecutive decisions; the Federal Reserve meets Wednesday with hike odds now a clear majority.

The Bank of Canada held for a seventh straight decision while Fed hike odds climbed past seventy per cent, both reacting to the same barrel of oil that also pulled the TSX to a six-week low even as Canadian energy names rallied around it.

The Bank of Canada held at 2.25 per cent on September 2 while U.S. futures markets now price roughly seventy per cent odds the Federal Reserve hikes on September 16. Twelve months ago the two banks were cutting in lockstep.

Canada's 10-year yield hit a fresh two-year high Thursday, but Reuters and Investing.com are now attributing the move to a global bond selloff tied to a soft U.S. Treasury buyback plan, not the tariff dispute that explained the prior two sessions. Only part of that move unwinds if Friday's CPI comes in soft.

A war escalation and a trade fight pulled Canadian portfolios in opposite directions today. The Government of Canada 10-year yield did not move enough to say which one the bond market believes.

The Dow fell 505 points Tuesday as bond markets kept repricing Friday's jobs report. Government of Canada yields moved with it, but the Canadian dollar strengthened anyway, and that split is the real story.

A four-session trading week, Labour Day closed markets Monday, produced a war escalation, a hawkish Bank of Canada hold, and a dovish Fed comment, and none of it moved the Government of Canada 10-year yield. A single domestic jobs report did what all three could not.

Two jobs reports landed within minutes of each other and pointed in opposite directions. The Canadian and US bond curves split accordingly, and the currency reaction to Canada's miss is quietly propping up the one TSX sector most exposed to it.

A blowout US payrolls print reverses a week of rate-cut optimism that had pushed gold toward $4,700 an ounce, and the swing reaches Canadian portfolios directly through TSX-listed precious metals miners.

A single Fed governor's comments on holding rates steady moved more Canadian markets Thursday than the Bank of Canada's own inflation warning did the day before, but the bond market that actually prices mortgages was not buying the relief rally.

Oil-linked strength wasn't enough to save Monday's session, and futures point to more pressure Tuesday as the Strait of Hormuz conflict resumes and US rate-hike odds climb.

A GDP beat erased the recession debate and bank earnings set a record Tuesday. Neither survived contact with Kevin Warsh's first Jackson Hole speech.

Statistics Canada delivered the strongest quarterly growth number in three years this morning. By afternoon the TSX was down anyway, tracking gold and the loonie lower on new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's first Jackson Hole speech, while Wall Street read the same remarks and rallied.

A cross-desk read of Thursday’s close shows Canada’s currency reacting to Ottawa’s tariff fight with Washington, not to the easing Strait of Hormuz premium that pulled crude lower.

Canada's benchmark yield touched a two-year high, retreated, and climbed back on Wednesday's inflation data. The path says more about the Fed than about the Bank of Canada's own case for holding.