Trump's "largely negotiated" declaration is the third major diplomatic signal since March to send oil lower. Each prior signal reversed. The Strait is still closed. Iran's negotiators are in Doha today still disputing its status. The portfolio implication is not what the headline suggests.

WTI's 5% decline on peace deal headlines shifts the Bank of Canada's June 10 decision framework -- but only if the drop holds. Macklem's April 29 baseline assumed Brent at $90 in Q2. That assumption is now being tested in real time.

WTI's 5% drop on Iran peace deal news creates a specific and immediate planning conversation for clients holding appreciated Canadian energy positions outside registered accounts. The tax math is real. The account location decision matters more than whether to hold or sell.

When peace deal headlines send oil prices down 5%, investors with energy gains face a specific cognitive trap. The same bias that made them hold losers too long now makes them lock in winners too early.

The TSX gained 248 points Thursday on ceasefire optimism and easing Treasury yields. Friday morning opens flat as Brent pulls back to $104.52 on the same optimism. The pattern has now repeated three times in six weeks, and the market is pricing resolution that the physical supply data keeps contradicting.

The April 8 U.S.-Iran ceasefire has held in name while intermittent fighting has continued since May 4. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed. Understanding the structure of the talks tells advisors more about the range of outcomes than any single diplomatic headline.

Statistics Canada releases March retail trade data today. The advance estimate called for a 0.6% gain. Whatever the actual print, it lands inside a monetary policy environment where the Bank of Canada is watching consumer spending data with unusual attention.

Canadian energy names have surged 40% or more since March. Clients sitting on those gains outside registered accounts face a decision with real tax consequences. The planning window is open now, and most advisors haven't started the conversation.

Every rumour of a deal sends oil prices lower and energy stocks higher. Behavioural finance research explains why this pattern is dangerous, and why advisors who understand it are positioned to prevent a costly mistake.

Oil bounced 3-4% on Khamenei's uranium edict, but Canadian energy stocks barely moved. That divergence tells you exactly what the market is betting on -- and what happens if it's wrong.

The TSX gained 1.25% Tuesday, but the sector split was the signal: financials up 1.85%, energy down 2.34%. The market is not betting on prolonged disruption. It is pricing a resolution.

Iran is reviewing a U.S. peace proposal. The UAE pipeline bypass is 50% built. ADNOC's CEO says normalization takes four months minimum even if conflict ends today. For Canadian energy investors, the question is no longer if the strait reopens but what the price floor looks like when it does.

Canada's April CPI came in at 2.8%, below the consensus of 3.1%. The more consequential number was buried underneath it: core inflation fell to a five-year low. That split creates an unusually difficult June 10 decision for the Bank of Canada.

Canadian energy stocks are up 50-plus percent since March. The TFSA is the only account where booking those gains and rotating the proceeds costs nothing in tax. The window will not stay open indefinitely.

When markets bounce on ceasefire optimism, a well-documented psychological mechanism pushes investors toward a mistake they will regret the moment the next headline arrives.

WTI below $100 and core CPI at a five-year low handed the Bank of Canada its clearest signal yet. The bond market saw it. The currency saw it. The equity market told a more complicated story than the headline suggested.