The Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed to normal commercial traffic since late February. Seventy-six days in, the IEA says the market will remain significantly undersupplied until October even if the conflict ends next month. The Canadian portfolio implications run deeper than the oil price.

Two consecutive data surprises are triggering a well-documented cognitive pattern. Here is what the research shows about how investors process sequential bad news, and why the worst decisions tend to follow the clearest-seeming signals.

Wednesday's US PPI came in at +6% year over year, the hottest since 2022, pricing out any Fed cut and pushing hike probability to 39%. The TSX should be falling harder. It isn't. The reason why is also the reason to be cautious.

U.S. wholesale inflation came in at double the consensus at 8:30 AM. The TSX is absorbing the number through a familiar split: energy names firm on elevated oil, gold miners lower on dollar strength, banks uncertain on which direction rates move. The Trump-Xi summit starting tomorrow is the next catalyst.

Trump lands in Beijing tomorrow for the first U.S. presidential state visit to China in nearly a decade. Three converging files — Iran, Hormuz, and CUSMA — all run through the same meeting. The outcome affects Canadian energy, Canadian trade, and the Bank of Canada's rate path.

Markets recovered from the Iran war shock weeks ago. A measurable cohort of retail investors never came back. The research explains why — and what it costs them.

April CPI came in at 3.8% in the United States, above consensus, driven by energy and a shelter rebound. Canada's own April inflation data lands May 19. The BoC meets June 10. The sequence matters more than any single number.

Trump declared the US-Iran ceasefire on "massive life support" after rejecting Tehran's latest peace proposal. The channel that carries 20% of global oil remains largely closed, and Brent crude above $94 has specific portfolio implications that go beyond energy sector exposure.

When dramatic, vivid events dominate the news, the availability heuristic causes investors to overweight recent and visible risks and underweight gradual, probabilistic ones. The Hormuz crisis is producing exactly this pattern, and the portfolio decisions it is generating are systematically predictable.

Trump's rejection of Iran's peace proposal sent WTI back to $98 this afternoon. The morning's Economy Desk established oil as the swing variable in the BoC's June 10 decision. Carney's "fortress North America" offer from Saturday puts Canadian energy on the negotiating table at the exact moment elevated oil is threatening a rate hike. Two frameworks, one sector, opposite implications.

Oil's elevated floor is holding energy names aloft while U.S. equities close at records. The divergence between the two markets tells the story of two very different risk calculations.

A technical ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran has cooled the worst-case scenario. But the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed, the IEA calls this the largest supply disruption in market history, and oil prices have a floor the market has not fully priced.

When geopolitical shocks dominate the news cycle, the availability heuristic inflates perceived risk and drives selling at exactly the wrong moment. Six weeks into the equity recovery, the divergence between investor sentiment and market reality has never been clearer.

Canada shed 18,000 jobs in April, unemployment rose to 6.9%, and oil is caught between a fragile Hormuz ceasefire and UAE supply math. The TSX opened lower.

A 14-point US-Iran memorandum of understanding is taking shape, with Iranian responses expected imminently. The deal's structure, not its signing, is now the variable that matters for Canadian energy and bond holders.

Oil's surge since late February has generated significant unrealized capital gains in non-registered accounts. With the 50% inclusion rate confirmed for 2026 and a Hormuz resolution potentially on the horizon, the window for managing those gains is narrowing.