The Bank of Canada's September 2 decision is likely a formality. The window on either side of it, running through Jackson Hole and the Fed's own September 16 meeting, is where Canadian bond yields are actually being set.

Friday's sector rotation mirrored Thursday's record close in reverse, and oil's refusal to react to stalled Hormuz talks confirms the story has moved from supply to demand.

Financials and technology carried the index to 36,759.29 while energy lagged and breadth stayed tight, even as bond yields hit a two year high.

Canada's economy is running hotter than the Bank's own forecast while US inflation cools, and Government of Canada yields are already pricing the difference.

Government of Canada yields just climbed to their highest since 2024, and the gap with the CRA's locked family loan rate has not been this wide in years.

Wednesday's fourth consecutive record close paired financials with gold miners. Thursday broke the pairing apart, and a cooler U.S. inflation print did not do for Canadian yields what it did for the Fed.

Wednesday's record TSX session came with a 12 percent single stock surge and a near 5 percent single stock decline on the same day. The sector rotation underneath the headline number is the more durable signal.

The Bank of Canada has held at 2.25 percent for six straight meetings while GDP and employment blow past its own projections. In line US inflation on Wednesday just took away one reason to keep waiting.

A cooling US CPI print eased yields across North America Wednesday, but the TSX's fourth straight record now runs on gold, not oil, and Canada's own economic data still sits underneath the Fed's good news.

The Government of Canada 10-year yield climbed to 3.75% even though the Bank of Canada has not moved its policy rate since October. The US July CPI report, due at 8:30am ET, is the print that resolves which economic signal wins.

Government of Canada bond yields just touched a 26-month high, and short-term Treasury bill yields tend to follow. The window to lock a prescribed rate loan at 3% narrows as the Q4 rate-setting auctions approach.

Deal-hope optimism sent the TSX to a financials-led record while Canada's 10-year yield spiked to a 26-month high on the same day, pricing the same story two different ways.

A blowout Canadian jobs report and a weak US one are colliding in the bond market, with Wednesday's US inflation print next to referee.

WTI and Brent jumped roughly 4 percent as Washington and Tehran each pointed to the naval blockade as the actual obstacle, a sharper claim than either side has made in weeks. Gold barely moved and the Canadian dollar stayed flat, leaving the loonie without the lift its own yield advantage and oil's rally would normally provide.

May GDP came in three times ahead of Statistics Canada's own flash estimate, and second-quarter growth is now tracking half a point above the Bank of Canada's forecast. Core inflation fell to its lowest level in over five years in the same month, an unusual combination that argues for continuity, not a directional surprise, at the September 2 decision.

The TSX gained more in one Tuesday session than it lost all of Friday, and gold did the heavy lifting again. But the Government of Canada bond curve eased instead of rising, and the loonie could not hold Friday's level, which is the more useful signal for what happens at the Bank of Canada's September 2 decision.