The CRA has locked the prescribed rate at 3% for Q3 2026. The Bank of Canada decides tomorrow. If Macklem signals a hike is coming, Q4's prescribed rate rises and the income-splitting window that has been open since mid-2025 narrows further. Clients who are not yet in a prescribed rate loan structure are running out of optionality.

A blowout U.S. payrolls print has repriced Fed expectations. The Bank of Canada decides in 48 hours with inflation at 2.8% and a domestic economy that cannot absorb a rate hike.

One hundred days into a war that has paralyzed the world's most important energy chokepoint, the Canadian financial landscape has been reshaped in ways that the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz will not fully undo.

May's 88,000-job print sent swap markets pricing three BoC hikes. Wages fell from 4.8% to 3.2%. Those two facts cannot both be right about what happens next.

The Israel-Lebanon ceasefire sent Brent crude down more than 3% on June 4 and reset the probability structure for Canadian energy equities. The TSX energy sub-index has outperformed the composite by a significant margin since March 4. The question today is whether that premium survives a diplomatic process that has failed four times before.

With the Bank of Canada widely expected to hold at 2.25% on June 10, clients renewing this year face a defined planning window. The numbers are worse than most advisors have communicated, and the account-level strategy is more nuanced than the headline rate suggests.

Congress passed a symbolic resolution to end Trump's Iran war today. Oil fell. The TSX energy sector fell harder. The connection is not coincidence.

Two scenarios published this morning by the OECD do something the Bank of Canada has been careful not to do: they put explicit numbers on the difference between looking through the oil shock and failing to. That gap is now visible in the GoC 5-year yield. The mortgage market has not caught up.

Canada's economy contracted for two straight quarters while inflation ran above 2.5%. June 10 is almost certainly a hold. The more consequential question is what the Bank says about July 15, and whether the data has shifted its bias.

Canada confirmed a technical recession on May 29 as Q1 GDP contracted 0.1% annualized. Markets are 99% priced for a June 10 hold at 2.25%. The real question is whether a softening oil price path changes the BoC's forward guidance more than its near-term rate decision.

Statistics Canada's Q1 GDP print confirmed this morning that Canada is technically in recession. The data is thin enough to argue either way. What it cannot avoid doing is forcing the Bank of Canada's hand at its June 10 decision.

Canada's technical recession arrived the same month the Spring Economic Update extended the Home Buyers' Plan repayment grace period to 2028. The two events together reshape what advisors should be telling RRSP-holding clients who are planning a home purchase.

Statistics Canada releases Q1 2026 GDP figures Friday morning. The Bank of Canada meets in 13 days. The data arrives into an environment where the BoC has explicitly left both cuts and hikes on the table -- making the read-through more consequential than a normal quarterly release.

Three major Canadian banks topped Q2 estimates and raised dividends. The TSX still closed lower. Understanding why that happened tells you what the June 10 Bank of Canada decision now hinges on.

Inflation accelerated on energy. Core held just above 2%. The BoC said it would look through the shock. That position is getting harder to maintain as the Hormuz closure drags into its fourth month.

BMO and Scotiabank beat estimates this morning. The wealth management surge inside those results is a planning signal, not just a market story.