Oil fell more than 10% this week as Hormuz de-escalation advanced. The TSX financials fell with it. That contradiction contains the most important setup of the next 48 hours.

April CPI hit 2.8% on war-premium energy costs, yet core inflation fell to a five-year low. The Iran MOU may resolve the contradiction -- but it creates a new one for the Bank of Canada ahead of June 10.

WTI's 5% decline on peace deal headlines shifts the Bank of Canada's June 10 decision framework -- but only if the drop holds. Macklem's April 29 baseline assumed Brent at $90 in Q2. That assumption is now being tested in real time.

Statistics Canada releases March retail trade data today. The advance estimate called for a 0.6% gain. Whatever the actual print, it lands inside a monetary policy environment where the Bank of Canada is watching consumer spending data with unusual attention.

Canada's April CPI came in at 2.8%, below the consensus of 3.1%. The more consequential number was buried underneath it: core inflation fell to a five-year low. That split creates an unusually difficult June 10 decision for the Bank of Canada.

Canada's 5-year bond yield is at 3.3% and climbing. Over one million Canadians renew this year. The planning question isn't just about rate selection. It's about which accounts should be bearing the fixed income exposure, and how renewal payment shock intersects with registered account deployment.

April CPI came in at 2.8%, under both the market consensus and the Bank of Canada's own peak projection. Core inflation is at a five-year low. The June 10 decision just got considerably simpler.

The Bank of Canada's deliberations published May 13 reveal a genuine fork in the rate path. April CPI releases tomorrow. The asset location decisions inside TFSAs, RRSPs, and FHSAs are different depending on which scenario the data confirms — and the window to act is three weeks.

CPI inflation rose to 2.4% in March on the largest monthly gasoline price increase on record, and the BoC projected it will likely peak near 3% in April. Statistics Canada releases April CPI on May 19. Whatever that number shows will determine whether Macklem's rate hike language remains hypothetical or becomes operative.

Canada has now lost 112,000 jobs since January, almost entirely full-time. The Bank of Canada meets June 10 with inflation running above target and a labour market that is softening faster than anyone expected.

Statistics Canada releases April employment data tomorrow. With the BoC holding at 2.25% and a wave of mortgage renewals hitting at rates far above what borrowers locked in, the jobs number matters more than usual.

The S&P 500 hit a new all-time high today and sold off. Canada’s 5-year bond yield rose on a peace-optimism day when it should have fallen. Held together, these two signals answer the question your mortgage renewal clients will ask tomorrow morning.

The Bank of Canada holds at 2.25% on April 29 -- near certainty. Markets price the probability of no change at 96.5%. The more consequential question is what the accompanying Monetary Policy Report si

The U.S. added 178,000 jobs in March, triple the consensus estimate, but the number landed on Good Friday when equity markets were closed. By today's open, Iran had consumed all the oxygen. The strong

The 5-year GoC bond yield moved from 2.7% to 3.2% this month without the BoC changing its rate. That 50-basis-point repricing has already pushed fixed mortgage rates higher at major lenders, affecting