Congress passed a symbolic resolution to end Trump's Iran war today. Oil fell. The TSX energy sector fell harder. The connection is not coincidence.

The day's synthesis: TD and NBC delivered the earnings the market needed. Then U.S. PCE inflation and the Hormuz MOU status together produced a closing read the morning could not have anticipated.

The Trump-Xi summit produced framework language, not Hormuz progress. Kevin Warsh inherits the Fed chair today into an oil-at-$103 inflation environment. The traditional safe haven trade inverted. The implication for Macklem's June 3 decision is not what the morning frameworks could have seen.

The Beijing summit produced a headline the market priced as oil-bearish. But the Manulife miss and the Warsh confirmation, run through the morning's frameworks together, reveal a different and more durable pressure building on the TSX.

Kevin Warsh was confirmed as Federal Reserve chair Wednesday with the narrowest margin in the modern era. He inherits back-to-back inflation shocks and a central bank whose next move markets now price as more likely a hike than a cut. What it means for the Bank of Canada's June 10 decision.

Wednesday's US PPI came in at +6% year over year, the hottest since 2022, pricing out any Fed cut and pushing hike probability to 39%. The TSX should be falling harder. It isn't. The reason why is also the reason to be cautious.

April CPI came in at 3.8% in the United States, above consensus, driven by energy and a shelter rebound. Canada's own April inflation data lands May 19. The BoC meets June 10. The sequence matters more than any single number.

Trump signed 100% tariffs on patented pharmaceuticals on April 2, targeting branded drugs from companies that have not struck pricing deals with his administration. Larger companies have 120 days befo