WTI's slide toward the mid 70s and a stronger US dollar are hitting Canadian sectors very differently this week. The mechanism behind the divergence, and what it means heading into Monday's open.

Crude has moved more than 3 percent in a single session eleven times this month. The research on why the most recent headline always feels like the most important one.

Canadian General Investments' Greg Eckel called it a two sector hit. Toromont Industries posted the day's biggest single name move, up 15.1%, for reasons that had nothing to do with either story.

The disposition effect predicts how clients will misread both moves, and it is not the same mistake twice.

Falling oil was supposed to be the good news story today. By 2pm it had become the second blade of a two-sided squeeze on the Canadian dollar, and almost nobody framed it that way.

The composite touched roughly 35,408 in the late morning, its fourth straight June record, before a firmer-than-expected Fed signal pulled the index down through the early afternoon. Materials held the gains. Energy gave back ground it had already lost this week.

The Iran deal drove global markets sharply higher Monday morning. But the TSX is split: energy names are selling off while financials and rate-sensitives surge. Understanding the rotation is the analysis.

WTI dropped 4% premarket Friday. The S&P 500 added 1.75% Thursday. Nasdaq jumped 2.54%. The TSX faces the same sector rotation it saw in April, only this time the war premium has further to unwind.

The index closed June 8 up 0.19%, reversing the geopolitical fear premium from the weekend strikes. What it did not recover was Friday's 2.3% selloff, which was driven by a blowout Canadian jobs print and a bond yield spike that has nothing to do with Iran. That distinction matters for what the BoC statement does tomorrow.

One hundred days into a war that has paralyzed the world's most important energy chokepoint, the Canadian financial landscape has been reshaped in ways that the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz will not fully undo.

The index gained 1.25% on June 2, led by financials and energy, one day after Iran suspended ceasefire negotiations. The market's ability to shrug off that headline is either sophisticated or complacent. The data argues for both readings simultaneously.

The TSX closed at 34,769 on Friday, up 0.73%, as financials, tech, and gold miners advanced while the energy sub-index fell 1.16%. The S&P 500 posted its ninth consecutive weekly gain, closing at 7,580. The Dow crossed 51,000 for the first time. The AI earnings cycle and the ceasefire trade are pulling the two markets in the same direction for opposite reasons.

Oil fell sixteen percent and a war stayed open, yet Canadian equities closed May at record highs. The months data reveals an index that quietly relocated its risk from the oil price to the rate path.

Oil's 17% monthly collapse and a technical recession printed on the same day. Neither is the story. The story is what they did together to the Bank of Canada's decision calculus.

The day's synthesis: TD and NBC delivered the earnings the market needed. Then U.S. PCE inflation and the Hormuz MOU status together produced a closing read the morning could not have anticipated.

Trump's "largely negotiated" deal framework has sent oil prices down more than 10% this week and lifted the TSX. The chain of consequence for Canadian portfolios runs through what the agreement leaves unfinished.