WTI crude fell for a fourth straight week to its lowest close since the Hormuz disruption began, yet the Canadian dollar strengthened over the final two sessions. Gold miners, not energy, carried the TSX toward a record.

US markets were dark for Independence Day, so the loonie, the TSX and the GoC curve each priced on domestic logic alone, and the day exposed a resource complex that has quietly split in two.

The US economy added 57,000 jobs in June against a 110,000 consensus, and Thursday's market reaction split cleanly along risk lines. The TSX edged higher on gold miner strength while the S&P 500 closed mixed. WTI held near $68.56. The week's defining move was not in equities. It was in the Fed probability strip.

A jobs report that collapsed Fed hike odds should have sent Canadian yields lower and given the Bank of Canada room. It did the opposite. The bond market is now pricing Canada as a standalone inflation story, and July 15 is not what the morning said it was.

Gold had its worst quarter in 13 years. Oil fell nearly 25%. The TSX gained 6.4%. Those facts belong to different markets. By close today, it was clear they were in the same one.

On June 17, the US-Iran ceasefire set the TSX all-time high and crashed oil twenty percent in the same session. June closed flat. The interior of that flat number is one of the most violent sector rotations of the year.

Investors are abandoning the asset built for exactly this moment, and the research explains why.

Oil and gold moved in opposite directions again Monday. The morning desks each explained half of it. Together they show the war premium and the rate premium have stopped moving as one trade.

The composite rose 0.4% to 34,980. Energy and banks fell, mining rallied even as gold itself fell, and tech extended a separate run, all on the same session's Hormuz headlines.

Iran struck two more tankers. The U.S. struck back twice. Oil recovered to $70.53 and gold fell to a four month low, because the two assets are pricing different parts of the same story.

WTI and gold have both round-tripped the entire Strait of Hormuz risk premium, but the Canadian dollar sits near its weakest level in the available 2026 trading record for a reason that has nothing to do with the war.

Gold and energy positions opened near the war's peak are now underwater as the Strait of Hormuz reopens, and the instinct to hold rather than sell has a name and a cost.

May's PCE hit its hottest annual pace since the Iran war began, and gold rallied on the news. The reason has nothing to do with the AI trade this morning's Market Desk leaned on, and everything to do with what the print did not do: come in hotter than feared.

Energy and gold names dragged the TSX down 0.5% Tuesday. A blowout Micron earnings report overnight has flipped the script for Canadian tech names heading into Thursday's session.

Investors are treating a Fed rate scare and a geopolitical de-escalation as the same emotional signal, and selling gold into both.

The composite slipped 0.21 percent Tuesday after Monday's gain, but the headline number hides a split: financials firmer on a regulatory tailwind, energy and gold names softer as their commodity supports both retreat.