Wednesday’s signing in Versailles was priced as resolution. Friday’s cancelled follow-up, and where oil bounced when it happened, says the reopening is a negotiation, not a finish line.

Three named forecasts now disagree on whether the Bank of Canada's next move is a hold into 2027 or the start of a hiking cycle that begins as early as October.

The Hormuz MOU and a hawkish Fed dot plot arrived at the same time. The TSX did not average them. It picked a side.

Falling oil was supposed to be the good news story today. By 2pm it had become the second blade of a two-sided squeeze on the Canadian dollar, and almost nobody framed it that way.

The Fed kept rates at 3.50% to 3.75% in new Chair Warsh's debut meeting, exactly as priced. The updated projections showing several officials now leaning toward a 2026 hike change the transmission math the Bank of Canada has to work with in July.

Oil collapsed 4% on the ceasefire. The five-year GoC barely moved. That gap is the most important signal in the Canadian market today, and nobody is talking about it.

The TSX closed at 35,297 on June 15, a fresh all-time high, while Suncor fell 3.2% and WTI dropped more than 5%. A record set on a day when the index's largest commodity sector declines is not a uniform rally. It is a structural rotation, and it changes what the second half of 2026 looks like for Canadian portfolios.

Oil down 5.5%, the 5-year yield at 3.01%, and the inflation constraint evaporating in real time. But the Fed meeting Wednesday changes the calculus before Macklem can act.

WTI's 3% drop on Iran deal proximity is not the Market Desk story today. It is the Economy Desk story for July 15, and the Bank of Canada's communications framework has not caught up yet.

WTI dropped 4% premarket Friday. The S&P 500 added 1.75% Thursday. Nasdaq jumped 2.54%. The TSX faces the same sector rotation it saw in April, only this time the war premium has further to unwind.

Trump cancelled Thursday's strikes and said a deal is basically done. Brent fell below $86. The Hormuz re-rating that lifted Canadian energy for three months is now running in reverse.

Trump's late-session pivot toward an Iran deal collapsed the inflation risk premium that had been holding the Bank of Canada frozen at 2.25% for five straight decisions. What the market is now pricing is not the same BoC that spoke on Wednesday.

The language shift nobody noticed: why Macklem's "near-term" replaced "immediate" at exactly the moment WTI hit $90 on a seventh consecutive inventory draw.

WTI broke below $88 on ceasefire headlines that haven't been formalized. The Bank of Canada speaks tomorrow with guidance built around elevated energy. The five-basis-point bond move doesn't price what Macklem now has to say.

Markets partially clawed back Friday's selloff on Monday. The same variable driving the recovery is the one that moved April CPI to a two-year high. Macklem's Wednesday statement will have to resolve the contradiction.

May's 88,000-job print sent swap markets pricing three BoC hikes. Wages fell from 4.8% to 3.2%. Those two facts cannot both be right about what happens next.