The Fed kept rates at 3.50% to 3.75% in new Chair Warsh's debut meeting, exactly as priced. The updated projections showing several officials now leaning toward a 2026 hike change the transmission math the Bank of Canada has to work with in July.

The TSX closed at 35,297 on June 15, a fresh all-time high, while Suncor fell 3.2% and WTI dropped more than 5%. A record set on a day when the index's largest commodity sector declines is not a uniform rally. It is a structural rotation, and it changes what the second half of 2026 looks like for Canadian portfolios.

The US-Iran agreement signed June 15 ends the blockade phase and begins a 60-day nuclear negotiation window. For Canadian portfolios, the immediate read-through is lower oil, a recovering loonie, and a BoC that can finally look past its inflation constraint. The tail risk is that the deal does not hold.

The Iran deal drove global markets sharply higher Monday morning. But the TSX is split: energy names are selling off while financials and rate-sensitives surge. Understanding the rotation is the analysis.

The June 10 hold statement left Governing Council a live wire in both directions. The US-Iran deal this morning cuts one of them. What the peace framework means for the July 15 decision and the Canadian rate path.

The TSX composite fell approximately 0.3% on Wednesday as base metals, technology, and rate-sensitive sectors absorbed the Bank of Canada's two-way risk language while energy names partially offset the decline on renewed Hormuz escalation. The session illustrated a structural divide in the Canadian market that has persisted since late February.

Markets partially clawed back Friday's selloff on Monday. The same variable driving the recovery is the one that moved April CPI to a two-year high. Macklem's Wednesday statement will have to resolve the contradiction.

A blowout U.S. payrolls print has repriced Fed expectations. The Bank of Canada decides in 48 hours with inflation at 2.8% and a domestic economy that cannot absorb a rate hike.

May's 88,000-job print sent swap markets pricing three BoC hikes. Wages fell from 4.8% to 3.2%. Those two facts cannot both be right about what happens next.

June 4's ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon pulled oil prices roughly 3% lower and raised hopes for a broader US-Iran deal. The Strait of Hormuz is still closed. The distinction between a changed probability distribution and a changed physical reality is the entire analytical question for Canadian portfolios.

Congress passed a symbolic resolution to end Trump's Iran war today. Oil fell. The TSX energy sector fell harder. The connection is not coincidence.

The TSX shed 368 points on June 3, pulling back 1.05% from Tuesday's all-time high of 34,899. Energy gained 1.19% while financials lost 0.64%. The composite decline masked a rotation that reveals exactly what the market believes about the Hormuz supply floor.

The index gained 1.25% on June 2, led by financials and energy, one day after Iran suspended ceasefire negotiations. The market's ability to shrug off that headline is either sophisticated or complacent. The data argues for both readings simultaneously.

Canada closes at record equity highs while sitting in a technical recession. The market has already priced the outcome it wants from the Bank of Canada. The data says the Bank has no comfortable move.

Iran's talk suspension sent energy names higher and financials lower on Monday. The TSX closed at 34,734 on June 1. Tuesday opens with oil near $92 WTI and a market pricing a base-case resolution it cannot fully trust.

The TSX closed at 34,769 on Friday, up 0.73%, as financials, tech, and gold miners advanced while the energy sub-index fell 1.16%. The S&P 500 posted its ninth consecutive weekly gain, closing at 7,580. The Dow crossed 51,000 for the first time. The AI earnings cycle and the ceasefire trade are pulling the two markets in the same direction for opposite reasons.