The composite touched a fresh intraday record near midday, minutes before the Fed delivered a tone investors were not positioned for. The research on what happens between the high and the headline is specific and well documented.

Oil collapsed 4% on the ceasefire. The five-year GoC barely moved. That gap is the most important signal in the Canadian market today, and nobody is talking about it.

The US-Iran ceasefire removes the primary inflation risk the Bank of Canada has been managing around since February. The June 22 CPI print, the first under updated basket weights, will tell the Bank whether its "look-through" on energy inflation was vindicated or whether pass-through has already embedded in core.

Oil down 5.5%, the 5-year yield at 3.01%, and the inflation constraint evaporating in real time. But the Fed meeting Wednesday changes the calculus before Macklem can act.

The June 10 hold statement left Governing Council a live wire in both directions. The US-Iran deal this morning cuts one of them. What the peace framework means for the July 15 decision and the Canadian rate path.

Trump's late-session pivot toward an Iran deal collapsed the inflation risk premium that had been holding the Bank of Canada frozen at 2.25% for five straight decisions. What the market is now pricing is not the same BoC that spoke on Wednesday.

The TSX hit 35,217 Thursday, then shed 803 points Friday on a jobs report that repriced the Fed. The sector rotation inside that decline is the real story.

A blowout U.S. payrolls print has repriced Fed expectations. The Bank of Canada decides in 48 hours with inflation at 2.8% and a domestic economy that cannot absorb a rate hike.

Congress passed a symbolic resolution to end Trump's Iran war today. Oil fell. The TSX energy sector fell harder. The connection is not coincidence.

The day's synthesis: TD and NBC delivered the earnings the market needed. Then U.S. PCE inflation and the Hormuz MOU status together produced a closing read the morning could not have anticipated.

The Trump-Xi summit produced framework language, not Hormuz progress. Kevin Warsh inherits the Fed chair today into an oil-at-$103 inflation environment. The traditional safe haven trade inverted. The implication for Macklem's June 3 decision is not what the morning frameworks could have seen.

The Beijing summit produced a headline the market priced as oil-bearish. But the Manulife miss and the Warsh confirmation, run through the morning's frameworks together, reveal a different and more durable pressure building on the TSX.

Kevin Warsh was confirmed as Federal Reserve chair Wednesday with the narrowest margin in the modern era. He inherits back-to-back inflation shocks and a central bank whose next move markets now price as more likely a hike than a cut. What it means for the Bank of Canada's June 10 decision.

Wednesday's US PPI came in at +6% year over year, the hottest since 2022, pricing out any Fed cut and pushing hike probability to 39%. The TSX should be falling harder. It isn't. The reason why is also the reason to be cautious.

April CPI came in at 3.8% in the United States, above consensus, driven by energy and a shelter rebound. Canada's own April inflation data lands May 19. The BoC meets June 10. The sequence matters more than any single number.

Trump signed 100% tariffs on patented pharmaceuticals on April 2, targeting branded drugs from companies that have not struck pricing deals with his administration. Larger companies have 120 days befo