A 50 percent US tariff on roughly $20 billion of Canadian goods is due to take effect at midnight unless a trade deal is finalized, and USD/CAD has spent two weeks pricing the outcome ahead of the headlines.

Canada's overall exports to the US fell 5.8 percent. The two disputed categories fell 22 and 81 percent, and that gap is the entire legal case.

Friday's Section 338 deadline runs on entry date, not ship date, and that distinction is the real planning window this week.

Trump paused Section 338 tariffs three hours before the deadline. The market is pricing it as resolved. It isn't.

Three new Section 338 proclamations put a 50 percent tariff on Canadian dairy, alcohol, and select vehicle categories starting August 19, but the sectors the U.S. chose not to touch say more about where this goes next.