The BoC's overnight rate has sat at 2.25 percent for six straight meetings, but the Government of Canada 10-year yield has climbed 34 basis points in the same window, driven by a US bond market the Bank of Canada does not control.

Core inflation has been flat for three months. The 30-year Treasury yield hitting its highest level since 2007 is the number that actually moves Canadian mortgage rates.

The five year Government of Canada bond yield has climbed to a multi week high even as the Bank of Canada holds steady. For advisors, that gap is the actual client conversation this renewal season.

Government of Canada bond yields just touched a 26-month high, and short-term Treasury bill yields tend to follow. The window to lock a prescribed rate loan at 3% narrows as the Q4 rate-setting auctions approach.

A blowout jobs report moved the five-year bond yield within minutes. The CRA's prescribed rate held for a fifth straight quarter. Advisors need to know which conversation applies to which client.

USD/CAD broke to its lowest level since June on today's jobs divergence, but the five-year yield that sets mortgage renewal rates gave back most of its spike by midday, leaving two markets pricing two different stories from the same data.

The five-year GoC yield barely reacted to the strongest jobs report in two years, which is the real story for anyone renewing a mortgage or weighing a prescribed-rate loan this year.

The TSX, the S&P 500, oil and the Canadian dollar all finished higher Friday. Gold, the number both the Behavioural and Tax and Wealth Desks led with this morning, was the exception, and the vessel data the Geopolitical Desk cited as evidence of calm reversed just as fast.

Mortgage-linked bond yields are easing this week as oil's war premium unwinds, but the CRA's income-splitting rate is anchored to a completely different curve that has not moved in a year.

The Bank of Canada held for a sixth straight meeting, but the five-year bond yield that actually prices fixed mortgages just touched a two-month high, and the gap matters most for anyone renewing in the next eighteen months.

The CRA held its family-loan rate at 3 per cent for a fifth straight quarter while the Government of Canada five-year yield that prices mortgage renewals climbed to 3.15 per cent this week, and the gap will not last.

June's FOMC minutes showed nine of twelve officials favouring higher US rates, the first hawkish signal of Kevin Warsh's chairmanship. The Bank of Canada meets the same day, expected to hold for a sixth consecutive time. The distance between the two paths is the story this week.

Statistics Canada releases June's jobs data this morning, the final input before the Bank's blackout closes ahead of July 15. Why a forecast as modest as 10,000 jobs carries outsized weight, and what it means for the rate path Canadian mortgage renewals are watching.

The mandatory six-year CUSMA review formally began this week, with auto rules of origin and EV supply chains on the table. Most advisors are watching the trade angle. The more immediate planning question is what a prolonged negotiation means for the clients whose registered accounts hold US-listed securities.

Five-year fixed renewers from 2021 face the largest payment jump of the cycle, and the geopolitical risk premium is the reason the relief many expected has not arrived.

The CRA's family loan rate has not moved since last September, but a hawkish Fed pivot raises the odds it will before the year is out.