A weekend tanker strike and a damaged Saudi pipeline pushed WTI toward $103, but stocks, gold and the Canadian dollar all moved the other way, pointing to Wednesday''s Fed decision as the real driver.

The oil-driven CPI shock and the TSX afternoon rebound on Friday are not two separate stories. They are the same number, working in opposite directions inside one trading session, while the Bank of Canada arrives at the identical conclusion through its own tariff-driven channel.

Canada's 10-year yield hit a fresh two-year high Thursday, but Reuters and Investing.com are now attributing the move to a global bond selloff tied to a soft U.S. Treasury buyback plan, not the tariff dispute that explained the prior two sessions. Only part of that move unwinds if Friday's CPI comes in soft.

A war escalation and a trade fight pulled Canadian portfolios in opposite directions today. The Government of Canada 10-year yield did not move enough to say which one the bond market believes.

Tuesday's retaliatory tariffs, not the widening Iran conflict, finally moved the yield that Fed dovishness and a historic jobs miss could not.

Two jobs reports landed within minutes of each other and pointed in opposite directions. The Canadian and US bond curves split accordingly, and the currency reaction to Canada's miss is quietly propping up the one TSX sector most exposed to it.

A single Fed governor's comments on holding rates steady moved more Canadian markets Thursday than the Bank of Canada's own inflation warning did the day before, but the bond market that actually prices mortgages was not buying the relief rally.

A hawkish hold moved the loonie by six hundredths of a cent. Gold, silver and the TSX miners moved on something else entirely: a second wave of US strikes on Iran and Iranian retaliation across the region.

The GoC 10-year hit its highest close since early August as a worldwide sovereign selloff overwhelmed a 2.6% oil rally, weakening the loonie and the TSX the day before Wednesday's rate decision.

Gold fell as the U.S. and Iran exchanged strikes over the Strait of Hormuz on Monday, a break from precedent that says rate expectations, not geopolitics, are now driving cross-asset pricing into the Bank of Canada's Wednesday decision.

Statistics Canada delivered the strongest quarterly growth number in three years this morning. By afternoon the TSX was down anyway, tracking gold and the loonie lower on new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's first Jackson Hole speech, while Wall Street read the same remarks and rallied.

A cross-desk read of Thursday’s close shows Canada’s currency reacting to Ottawa’s tariff fight with Washington, not to the easing Strait of Hormuz premium that pulled crude lower.

A hot US inflation print undid four sessions of declining Government of Canada yields within hours, while equity volatility barely moved and two unrelated good-news stories pulled the TSX in different directions at once.

The exact marker Geopolitical named this morning as the line between diplomatic pressure and real supply risk fired Tuesday. WTI's muted reaction says the market is not buying the supply story, and the VIX did not move either.

The trade collapse did not just move headline numbers Monday. It reversed a two week bond rally and a two week currency rally that had nothing to do with each other, while gold kept climbing on a completely separate story.

Gold miners, not trade negotiators, drove Friday's gains, and the currency signal underneath it tells advisors which crisis is actually live heading into the weekend.