Markets are selling off this morning not because anything went wrong in Beijing — but because nothing went spectacularly right. That distinction matters enormously for investors, and most of them will not make it.

The Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed to normal commercial traffic since late February. Seventy-six days in, the IEA says the market will remain significantly undersupplied until October even if the conflict ends next month. The Canadian portfolio implications run deeper than the oil price.

Two consecutive data surprises are triggering a well-documented cognitive pattern. Here is what the research shows about how investors process sequential bad news, and why the worst decisions tend to follow the clearest-seeming signals.

Trump lands in Beijing tomorrow for the first U.S. presidential state visit to China in nearly a decade. Three converging files — Iran, Hormuz, and CUSMA — all run through the same meeting. The outcome affects Canadian energy, Canadian trade, and the Bank of Canada's rate path.

Markets recovered from the Iran war shock weeks ago. A measurable cohort of retail investors never came back. The research explains why — and what it costs them.

Trump declared the US-Iran ceasefire on "massive life support" after rejecting Tehran's latest peace proposal. The channel that carries 20% of global oil remains largely closed, and Brent crude above $94 has specific portfolio implications that go beyond energy sector exposure.

A technical ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran has cooled the worst-case scenario. But the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed, the IEA calls this the largest supply disruption in market history, and oil prices have a floor the market has not fully priced.

A 14-point US-Iran memorandum of understanding is taking shape, with Iranian responses expected imminently. The deal's structure, not its signing, is now the variable that matters for Canadian energy and bond holders.

Washington and Tehran are reportedly within 48 hours of agreeing on a preliminary memorandum of understanding. What it would and would not resolve, and what it means for the oil price in every Canadian portfolio.

Oil is dropping 3-4% on Iran peace hopes and equity futures are rising. History says this is the moment investors make their worst moves.

The S&P 500 hit a new all-time high today and sold off. Canada’s 5-year bond yield rose on a peace-optimism day when it should have fallen. Held together, these two signals answer the question your mortgage renewal clients will ask tomorrow morning.

S&P 500 +3.6%, Nasdaq +4.7%, Dow +3%. Best weekly gain since November, snapping a five-week losing streak. S&P closed Friday at 6,816.89, Nasdaq at 22,902.89, Dow at 47,916.57.

Five trading days, four narratives. Iran escalation Monday, Tehran's ceasefire rejection Tuesday, the surprise ceasefire Wednesday, oil collapsing below $95, and a Canadian jobs rebound this morning

The Conservative ask is on the table. Federal Conservatives are calling on Ottawa to return some of the excise revenue collected during the Iran oil spike, economists are split on whether a tax cut is

The surprise ceasefire is now 48 hours old. President Trump announced a two-week ceasefire with Iran on Wednesday, conditional on an immediate and safe reopening of the Strait of Hormuz

The market's biggest single-day surge in months followed a ceasefire that still hasn't actually opened the Strait of Hormuz. The psychology of relief is one of the most well-documented sources of inve