Gold and energy positions opened near the war's peak are now underwater as the Strait of Hormuz reopens, and the instinct to hold rather than sell has a name and a cost.

Energy and gold names dragged the TSX down 0.5% Tuesday. A blowout Micron earnings report overnight has flipped the script for Canadian tech names heading into Thursday's session.

The composite slipped 0.21 percent Tuesday after Monday's gain, but the headline number hides a split: financials firmer on a regulatory tailwind, energy and gold names softer as their commodity supports both retreat.

The S&P/TSX Composite closed at a fresh high on bank and gold-miner strength even as crude oil fell more than 3%, a sector rotation that tells Canadian portfolios more than the day's net index move does.

WTI's slide toward the mid 70s and a stronger US dollar are hitting Canadian sectors very differently this week. The mechanism behind the divergence, and what it means heading into Monday's open.

Canadian General Investments' Greg Eckel called it a two sector hit. Toromont Industries posted the day's biggest single name move, up 15.1%, for reasons that had nothing to do with either story.

The Hormuz MOU and a hawkish Fed dot plot arrived at the same time. The TSX did not average them. It picked a side.

The TSX dropped 0.75% to 35,125 Wednesday as energy and gold miners absorbed a collapsing oil price while new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivered a hawkish surprise that hit banks too.

WTI has fallen from a war-era anchor above $100 to the mid-$70s in days, while a hawkish Fed surprise hit equities on the same week. Clients are processing two opposite shocks as one signal, and that confusion has a name.

The composite touched roughly 35,408 in the late morning, its fourth straight June record, before a firmer-than-expected Fed signal pulled the index down through the early afternoon. Materials held the gains. Energy gave back ground it had already lost this week.

WTI has fallen below $77 and Brent below $79 on the prospect of Friday's Geneva signing. The gap between that price move and the physical reality of restoring tanker traffic is the risk Canadian energy investors are not pricing.

The composite touched a fresh intraday record near midday, minutes before the Fed delivered a tone investors were not positioned for. The research on what happens between the high and the headline is specific and well documented.

Oil collapsed 4% on the ceasefire. The five-year GoC barely moved. That gap is the most important signal in the Canadian market today, and nobody is talking about it.

The TSX closed at 35,297 on June 15, a fresh all-time high, while Suncor fell 3.2% and WTI dropped more than 5%. A record set on a day when the index's largest commodity sector declines is not a uniform rally. It is a structural rotation, and it changes what the second half of 2026 looks like for Canadian portfolios.

The US-Iran agreement signed June 15 ends the blockade phase and begins a 60-day nuclear negotiation window. For Canadian portfolios, the immediate read-through is lower oil, a recovering loonie, and a BoC that can finally look past its inflation constraint. The tail risk is that the deal does not hold.

WTI crude has fallen more than 23% from its 2026 peak in two weeks. Clients who rode Canadian energy stocks from February to June are now facing a decision the research says they will almost certainly get wrong.