The TSX closed in on a record high, but the sector leadership behind the move signals a rate story, not an oil story.

WTI has round-tripped back to its pre-war level, but physical flow through the strait sits at about half of pre-conflict volume, and an unresolved toll dispute is the mechanism that could reopen the gap.

May's 3.2% headline print looks like a problem for the July 15 decision. The core data underneath it argues the opposite.

The July 1 non-renewal changed no tariff rates, but it shifted Canadian business owners from a six-year trade policy horizon to an annual one.

The metal's June capitulation and its July rebound were driven by the same behavioural pattern, just pointed in opposite directions.

WTI crude fell for a fourth straight week to its lowest close since the Hormuz disruption began, yet the Canadian dollar strengthened over the final two sessions. Gold miners, not energy, carried the TSX toward a record.

US markets were dark for Independence Day, so the loonie, the TSX and the GoC curve each priced on domestic logic alone, and the day exposed a resource complex that has quietly split in two.

The US economy added 57,000 jobs in June against a 110,000 consensus, and Thursday's market reaction split cleanly along risk lines. The TSX edged higher on gold miner strength while the S&P 500 closed mixed. WTI held near $68.56. The week's defining move was not in equities. It was in the Fed probability strip.

US-Iran indirect talks in Doha concluded Wednesday with 'positive progress' but no breakthrough. Negotiations are now formally paused until after Khamenei's six-day funeral procession ends July 9. The pause is not a setback. It is the period during which the oil market will price the next round's probability of success.

Thursday's 57,000 US payrolls print sent gold above $4,100 and cut Fed hike probability for September nearly in half. The Bank of Canada's July 15 decision was already set before the data landed, and it remains set after. Understanding why is the analytical work Canadian advisors need to do this week.

The mandatory six-year CUSMA review formally began this week, with auto rules of origin and EV supply chains on the table. Most advisors are watching the trade angle. The more immediate planning question is what a prolonged negotiation means for the clients whose registered accounts hold US-listed securities.

When the June jobs report landed Thursday, investors focused on the 57K headline. The more dangerous number is the one nobody is talking about: the 0.3-point drop in participation that made the unemployment rate fall. Kahneman called this exactly.

A jobs report that collapsed Fed hike odds should have sent Canadian yields lower and given the Bank of Canada room. It did the opposite. The bond market is now pricing Canada as a standalone inflation story, and July 15 is not what the morning said it was.

The composite had to price two American sessions in one open after Canada Day. CNQ fell 3.5%, Suncor 3.2%, while utilities and financials rose more than 1% on the U.S. jobs miss.

US-Iran technical talks in Qatar wrapped Tuesday with Qatar reporting progress on the Islamabad MOU. Oil slid to $67, down 43% from its April war peak, as the toll sovereignty dispute remains open.

The 0.5% April GDP reading was the strongest in a year, broad across 14 industries. The advance for May is already back to 0.1%, and July 15 is two weeks away.