Trump says a deal is largely negotiated. Iran says the description is incomplete and inconsistent with reality. WTI at $90 is the market's verdict on who is right.

One hundred days into a war that has paralyzed the world's most important energy chokepoint, the Canadian financial landscape has been reshaped in ways that the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz will not fully undo.

May's 88,000-job print sent swap markets pricing three BoC hikes. Wages fell from 4.8% to 3.2%. Those two facts cannot both be right about what happens next.

The Israel-Lebanon ceasefire sent Brent crude down more than 3% on June 4 and reset the probability structure for Canadian energy equities. The TSX energy sub-index has outperformed the composite by a significant margin since March 4. The question today is whether that premium survives a diplomatic process that has failed four times before.

June 4's ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon pulled oil prices roughly 3% lower and raised hopes for a broader US-Iran deal. The Strait of Hormuz is still closed. The distinction between a changed probability distribution and a changed physical reality is the entire analytical question for Canadian portfolios.

The Israel-Lebanon ceasefire is inverting the recency bias that geopolitical volatility built over three months. Advisors who understand the mechanism can stop the second mistake before the first one is even recovered.

Congress passed a symbolic resolution to end Trump's Iran war today. Oil fell. The TSX energy sector fell harder. The connection is not coincidence.

The TSX shed 368 points on June 3, pulling back 1.05% from Tuesday's all-time high of 34,899. Energy gained 1.19% while financials lost 0.64%. The composite decline masked a rotation that reveals exactly what the market believes about the Hormuz supply floor.

Iran struck Kuwait International Airport on June 3, suspended peace talks, and traded strikes with U.S. forces near the Strait of Hormuz. The chain of consequence for Canadian portfolios runs through one variable: whether these escalations threaten the Hormuz supply disruption that has underpinned the energy re-rating since February 28.

Two scenarios published this morning by the OECD do something the Bank of Canada has been careful not to do: they put explicit numbers on the difference between looking through the oil shock and failing to. That gap is now visible in the GoC 5-year yield. The mortgage market has not caught up.

The index gained 1.25% on June 2, led by financials and energy, one day after Iran suspended ceasefire negotiations. The market's ability to shrug off that headline is either sophisticated or complacent. The data argues for both readings simultaneously.

WTI at $95 implies the market believes the Iran ceasefire holds and Hormuz reopens. The events of the past 72 hours suggest that confidence is misplaced. The gap between what is priced and what is possible is the risk Canadian energy portfolios are carrying right now.

Canada closes at record equity highs while sitting in a technical recession. The market has already priced the outcome it wants from the Bank of Canada. The data says the Bank has no comfortable move.

Iran's talk suspension sent energy names higher and financials lower on Monday. The TSX closed at 34,734 on June 1. Tuesday opens with oil near $92 WTI and a market pricing a base-case resolution it cannot fully trust.

Tehran cited Israel's Lebanon offensive as a ceasefire violation and halted communications with Washington. Oil spiked 8% before a partial recovery. The diplomatic architecture that has kept the conflict contained is now under its most serious stress test.

Iran's suspension of U.S. talks triggered an 8% oil spike, a partial recovery, and a predictable wave of retail selling. The research on this pattern is three decades old. The outcome is still the same.