The S&P 500 hit a new all-time high today and sold off. Canada’s 5-year bond yield rose on a peace-optimism day when it should have fallen. Held together, these two signals answer the question your mortgage renewal clients will ask tomorrow morning.

Statistics Canada reported a modest March rebound in the Labour Force Survey released at 8:30 AM this morning, ending a two-month run of job losses to start the year

The TSX closed Thursday at 33,477, down 0.42% on the session as the energy sector unwound while financials caught a bid on the prospect of a more cautious BoC

The TSX closed up 0.5% to roughly 33,500. Financials added another 0.5%, oil fell below $95, and Canadian energy names rallied anyway. CNQ +1%, Suncor +0.6%

The Bank of Canada holds at 2.25% on April 29 -- near certainty. Markets price the probability of no change at 96.5%. The more consequential question is what the accompanying Monetary Policy Report si

Canada entered the Iran crisis with an already-softening economy. The BoC's March statement noted employment gains from Q4 2025 were largely reversed in the first two months of 2026, with unemployment

The S&P 500 closed up for a seventh straight session, the longest streak since October 2025 -- on a day WTI crude rose roughly 6% back toward $100, software shares sold off inside the rally, and Iran

The ceasefire produced an immediate relief rally: S&P 500 futures up 2.7%, Nasdaq futures up 3.5%, oil down 14-16% overnight after Trump announced the two-week Islamabad Accords late Tuesday

WTI crude is trading near $112 per barrel -- up roughly 66% since the Iran conflict began February 28. Canadian energy producers Suncor, CNQ, and Cenovus have posted historic cash flow generation at t

The Bank of Canada holds at 2.25% with its next decision on April 29. Governor Macklem has signaled the BoC will look through the immediate oil-driven inflation spike -- but will raise rates if energy

The Bank of Canada held at 2.25% on March 18 and explicitly named "economic weakness combined with rising inflation" as its central dilemma. The next decision is April 29, with a full Monetary Policy

The U.S. added 178,000 jobs in March, triple the consensus estimate, but the number landed on Good Friday when equity markets were closed. By today's open, Iran had consumed all the oxygen. The strong

The ceasefire cycle ran its full course in four days. Markets rallied Tuesday and Wednesday on Trump's claim that Iran requested a ceasefire, then reversed hard Thursday morning after his prime-time a

The BoC's March deliberations were released Wednesday, revealing a governing council explicitly weighing whether the oil shock would push inflation broadly higher or remain contained to energy

The 5-year GoC bond yield moved from 2.7% to 3.2% this month without the BoC changing its rate. That 50-basis-point repricing has already pushed fixed mortgage rates higher at major lenders, affecting

The Bank of Canada publishes its March 18 deliberations today at 1:30 PM ET, providing the most detailed window yet into how Governing Council is thinking about an economy simultaneously hit by a coll