Monday's 1% TSX gain happened without US participation. Tuesday's session -- the first with both markets open since the Iran framework -- will test whether the relief trade holds or overshoots.

Trump's "largely negotiated" deal framework has sent oil prices down more than 10% this week and lifted the TSX. The chain of consequence for Canadian portfolios runs through what the agreement leaves unfinished.

A ceasefire framework that could reopen the strait within 60 days changes the math for clients sitting on war-premium gains in energy and gold. The planning window is narrower than it looks.

WTI fell toward $91 today as Iran deal proximity reshaped the energy market faster than most May frameworks assumed. The GoC 5-year eased to 3.12%. Canadian bank Q2 earnings begin Tuesday. These three facts, held together, produce a conclusion none of the morning desks could reach individually.

WTI's 5% peace deal drop hits energy -- 17% of the TSX -- but hands a tailwind to financials, consumer, and rate-sensitives. Whether the index holds near its all-time high depends on which side of that trade wins Monday. Bank earnings this week are the next catalyst.

Trump's "largely negotiated" declaration is the third major diplomatic signal since March to send oil lower. Each prior signal reversed. The Strait is still closed. Iran's negotiators are in Doha today still disputing its status. The portfolio implication is not what the headline suggests.

WTI's 5% decline on peace deal headlines shifts the Bank of Canada's June 10 decision framework -- but only if the drop holds. Macklem's April 29 baseline assumed Brent at $90 in Q2. That assumption is now being tested in real time.

WTI's 5% drop on Iran peace deal news creates a specific and immediate planning conversation for clients holding appreciated Canadian energy positions outside registered accounts. The tax math is real. The account location decision matters more than whether to hold or sell.

When peace deal headlines send oil prices down 5%, investors with energy gains face a specific cognitive trap. The same bias that made them hold losers too long now makes them lock in winners too early.

The TSX gained 248 points Thursday on ceasefire optimism and easing Treasury yields. Friday morning opens flat as Brent pulls back to $104.52 on the same optimism. The pattern has now repeated three times in six weeks, and the market is pricing resolution that the physical supply data keeps contradicting.

The April 8 U.S.-Iran ceasefire has held in name while intermittent fighting has continued since May 4. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed. Understanding the structure of the talks tells advisors more about the range of outcomes than any single diplomatic headline.

Every rumour of a deal sends oil prices lower and energy stocks higher. Behavioural finance research explains why this pattern is dangerous, and why advisors who understand it are positioned to prevent a costly mistake.

Oil bounced 3-4% on Khamenei's uranium edict, but Canadian energy stocks barely moved. That divergence tells you exactly what the market is betting on -- and what happens if it's wrong.

The TSX gained 1.25% Tuesday, but the sector split was the signal: financials up 1.85%, energy down 2.34%. The market is not betting on prolonged disruption. It is pricing a resolution.

Iran is reviewing a U.S. peace proposal. The UAE pipeline bypass is 50% built. ADNOC's CEO says normalization takes four months minimum even if conflict ends today. For Canadian energy investors, the question is no longer if the strait reopens but what the price floor looks like when it does.

When markets bounce on ceasefire optimism, a well-documented psychological mechanism pushes investors toward a mistake they will regret the moment the next headline arrives.