Energy names gained on crude above 100 dollars a barrel, but the broader index still closed lower after the Federal Reserve raised rates for the first time since 2023.

A hawkish Fed hike hit Wall Street and TSX financials the same day Ottawa and Brussels moved to deepen trade and defence ties.

Energy strength from the Hormuz-driven oil rally is fighting a three-week slide in base metals, financials, and technology, with a near-certain Federal Reserve hike this afternoon adding a fresh cross-current.

Canadian inflation held at 3% in August on rent and gasoline. The Fed meets Wednesday with markets pricing roughly nine-in-ten odds of a hike on the same oil-driven pressure. The two central banks are reading the identical shock in opposite directions.

A weekend tanker strike and a damaged Saudi pipeline pushed WTI toward $103, but stocks, gold and the Canadian dollar all moved the other way, pointing to Wednesday''s Fed decision as the real driver.

WTI crude closed at $102.55 on September 13, the day an Iranian vessel was struck near Qeshm, and the chain from the Strait of Hormuz to Canadian portfolios runs through gasoline prices, energy equities, and the currency.

The Bank of Canada held for a seventh straight decision while Fed hike odds climbed past seventy per cent, both reacting to the same barrel of oil that also pulled the TSX to a six-week low even as Canadian energy names rallied around it.

The S&P/TSX Composite closed at 35,616.77 on Thursday, down 0.81 per cent, as a U.S. procurement threat hit Canadian engineering and infrastructure names hard enough that a surging oil price could not offset the damage.

Canada's 10-year yield hit a fresh two-year high Thursday, but Reuters and Investing.com are now attributing the move to a global bond selloff tied to a soft U.S. Treasury buyback plan, not the tariff dispute that explained the prior two sessions. Only part of that move unwinds if Friday's CPI comes in soft.

The composite closed at 35,906.56 Wednesday, down 0.6% and in its fourth decline in five sessions, even as WTI crude climbed toward $100 on the tanker war.

WTI has surged since the U.S. and Iran began trading strikes on tankers in the Persian Gulf. The currency that usually tracks Canadian energy windfalls closely has barely moved, and that gap is the real portfolio question.

The Dow fell 505 points Tuesday as bond markets kept repricing Friday's jobs report. Government of Canada yields moved with it, but the Canadian dollar strengthened anyway, and that split is the real story.

Tuesday's retaliatory tariffs, not the widening Iran conflict, finally moved the yield that Fed dovishness and a historic jobs miss could not.

WTI is on its sixth straight higher session heading into the Tuesday open, U.S. futures are lower on Middle East and rate uncertainty, and the split puts Canadian energy names on the right side of both stories at once.

WTI has risen 15% since August 10, most of it in the two sessions since Iran's attack on a Saudi tanker in the Strait of Hormuz. The mechanism connecting that to Canadian portfolios runs through the currency as much as the energy sector.

A four-session trading week, Labour Day closed markets Monday, produced a war escalation, a hawkish Bank of Canada hold, and a dovish Fed comment, and none of it moved the Government of Canada 10-year yield. A single domestic jobs report did what all three could not.