US-Iran technical talks in Qatar wrapped Tuesday with Qatar reporting progress on the Islamabad MOU. Oil slid to $67, down 43% from its April war peak, as the toll sovereignty dispute remains open.

The toll-free window in the US-Iran memorandum runs out around August 16, and Tehran has already signaled what comes next.

Tehran cited Israel's Lebanon offensive as a ceasefire violation and halted communications with Washington. Oil spiked 8% before a partial recovery. The diplomatic architecture that has kept the conflict contained is now under its most serious stress test.

Trump's "largely negotiated" declaration is the third major diplomatic signal since March to send oil lower. Each prior signal reversed. The Strait is still closed. Iran's negotiators are in Doha today still disputing its status. The portfolio implication is not what the headline suggests.

The Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed to normal commercial traffic since late February. Seventy-six days in, the IEA says the market will remain significantly undersupplied until October even if the conflict ends next month. The Canadian portfolio implications run deeper than the oil price.