The TSX closed in on a record high, but the sector leadership behind the move signals a rate story, not an oil story.

The 0.5% April GDP reading was the strongest in a year, broad across 14 industries. The advance for May is already back to 0.1%, and July 15 is two weeks away.

Gold had its worst quarter in 13 years. Oil fell nearly 25%. The TSX gained 6.4%. Those facts belong to different markets. By close today, it was clear they were in the same one.

Crude has rolled all the way back to pre-war levels even with Hormuz still unresolved, and Canadian energy stocks are absorbing the hit while the broader index holds near record territory.

The slide pulled the TSX energy sub-index down nearly 4% in Friday trading, the sharpest one-day move since the Strait of Hormuz reopening began.

Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is moving at its fastest pace since the war began, but Wednesday's attack on a cargo vessel shows how little it would take to reverse that.

Gold and energy positions opened near the war's peak are now underwater as the Strait of Hormuz reopens, and the instinct to hold rather than sell has a name and a cost.

The Hormuz MOU and a hawkish Fed dot plot arrived at the same time. The TSX did not average them. It picked a side.

The TSX dropped 0.75% to 35,125 Wednesday as energy and gold miners absorbed a collapsing oil price while new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivered a hawkish surprise that hit banks too.

WTI has fallen below $77 and Brent below $79 on the prospect of Friday's Geneva signing. The gap between that price move and the physical reality of restoring tanker traffic is the risk Canadian energy investors are not pricing.

The TSX closed at 35,297 on June 15, a fresh all-time high, while Suncor fell 3.2% and WTI dropped more than 5%. A record set on a day when the index's largest commodity sector declines is not a uniform rally. It is a structural rotation, and it changes what the second half of 2026 looks like for Canadian portfolios.

WTI crude has fallen more than 23% from its 2026 peak in two weeks. Clients who rode Canadian energy stocks from February to June are now facing a decision the research says they will almost certainly get wrong.

Oil down 5.5%, the 5-year yield at 3.01%, and the inflation constraint evaporating in real time. But the Fed meeting Wednesday changes the calculus before Macklem can act.

The Iran deal drove global markets sharply higher Monday morning. But the TSX is split: energy names are selling off while financials and rate-sensitives surge. Understanding the rotation is the analysis.

Trump and Iran announced a framework overnight. The signing is Friday in Switzerland. The Strait of Hormuz will not normalize for months. Canadian portfolios need to hold both of those facts at once.

When geopolitical relief arrives, investors don't exhale. They reach for yield. Research on the overreaction cycle explains why the most dangerous moment is right now.