WTI's slide past seven per cent puts a specific number on five months of energy sector paper gains. Unlike 2024, the decision this time is not racing a rate change. It is racing the calendar, with Wednesday's Federal Reserve decision and Cenovus's earnings landing the same day.

The TSX fell 0.82% a day after a record close, as oil past $100 lifted energy but hit yield-sensitive banks. Energy and utilities were the only sectors to gain.

Two Saudi tankers struck in the Red Sea push Brent past $100 for the first time since May. The muted reaction across the TSX and gold suggests markets still treat this as tail risk, not the base case.

Bab el-Mandeb traffic carrying Saudi crude surged more than tenfold this year as producers routed around Strait of Hormuz risk. A new Houthi blockade threat is closing that alternative just as Iran escalates attacks on the original chokepoint.

Yemen's Houthis have declared a maritime embargo against Saudi Arabia, threatening the Red Sea export route Riyadh has used to offset the Strait of Hormuz disruption, even as markets show their first real mediation signal in over a week.

Brent touched $90 and WTI hit $84.59 Monday on the same headlines, but Toronto and New York read them in opposite directions: U.S. indices rallied on a semiconductor rebound ahead of this week's earnings while the TSX's precious metals weighting dragged it lower.

The S&P/TSX Composite closed Thursday at 35,340.15, down 0.21 per cent and essentially unchanged from Friday's close five sessions earlier. In between, the index touched a record high, then gave nearly all of it back in a single session, as elevated oil prices and falling gold prices pulled the benchmark in opposite directions all week.

The S&P/TSX Composite closed at 35,416.20 Wednesday, its third straight gain, as Canadian energy producers rallied on the Hormuz-driven oil surge while the index's gold miners, led by an 8.4 per cent drop in Franco-Nevada, absorbed the other side of the same trade.

For four months, Iran's leverage was a shipping lane. Wednesday's threat to halt energy exports from the entire region, paired with a strike that hit actual production infrastructure, changes the mechanism connecting this war to Canadian portfolios, even though the base case has not changed yet.

Energy gains booked inside a corporate portfolio this year do not touch this year's tax bill. They determine how much of next year's small business deduction survives, and the window to manage that number closes December 31.

Energy strength was not enough to offset financials and materials on Bay Street, and Tuesday's steeper losses are landing in Asia, where Kospi is down 3.2% while North American futures sit close to flat.

The naval blockade taking effect this afternoon targets Iranian ports specifically, but the mechanism that could sustain a lasting risk premium is Washington's 20% toll demand on the shipping Canada never sends through the strait in the first place.

Friday's close left the index within 0.9% of its June 17 high. Tuesday's US inflation data, Wednesday's Bank of Canada decision, and Warsh's first Congressional testimony now land inside a single 48 hour window, against a backdrop of oil already up more than 4% Monday.

A fourth wave of US strikes and Iran's retaliation against Bahrain, Kuwait, and Jordan pushed Brent above 79 dollars Monday. Whether this is the escalation that finally sustains a Hormuz disruption or another cycle the market fades within weeks depends on data the headlines are not capturing.

The TSX gained 0.76% Thursday to 35,200, led by gold miners and the banks, even as the Iran conflict widened to two new countries. Why a U.S. chip rally and easing bond yields did the real work, and what a five-week, 613-point trading range says about Canadian equity exposure.

Iran's strikes reached Qatar and Jordan for the first time this week, yet WTI eased for a second straight day. Why the actual tail risk for Canadian energy exposure is not the headline count of countries involved, but a genuine halt in Hormuz shipping.