Gold fell 16 percent from its April peak as the market priced a durable calm in the Strait of Hormuz. Monday night's tanker attack is a live test of recency bias, and it will play out in client phone calls before it plays out in prices.

When the June jobs report landed Thursday, investors focused on the 57K headline. The more dangerous number is the one nobody is talking about: the 0.3-point drop in participation that made the unemployment rate fall. Kahneman called this exactly.

Iran struck two more tankers. The U.S. struck back twice. Oil recovered to $70.53 and gold fell to a four month low, because the two assets are pricing different parts of the same story.

Gold and energy positions opened near the war's peak are now underwater as the Strait of Hormuz reopens, and the instinct to hold rather than sell has a name and a cost.

Crude has moved more than 3 percent in a single session eleven times this month. The research on why the most recent headline always feels like the most important one.

WTI has fallen from a war-era anchor above $100 to the mid-$70s in days, while a hawkish Fed surprise hit equities on the same week. Clients are processing two opposite shocks as one signal, and that confusion has a name.

WTI crude has fallen more than 23% from its 2026 peak in two weeks. Clients who rode Canadian energy stocks from February to June are now facing a decision the research says they will almost certainly get wrong.

When geopolitical relief arrives, investors don't exhale. They reach for yield. Research on the overreaction cycle explains why the most dangerous moment is right now.

Canada's GDP contracted by a statistical hair. The word "recession" spread everywhere. Your clients' brains did the rest.

WTI has dropped more than $20 from its April peak. Clients sitting on large energy gains are feeling something Kahneman identified in 1979. The advisor who understands the disposition effect will hold them in place. The one who does not will watch them lock in a tax bill and miss the next leg.

The Bank of Canada holds again today. Research on status quo bias explains why some clients will do nothing with their mortgage even when doing nothing costs them more.

Missiles over Tel Aviv on Sunday night. The TSX up 0.19% on Monday. The gap between what your clients felt and what markets did is not an anomaly. It is the availability heuristic doing exactly what Tversky and Kahneman predicted it would.

The TSX hit an all-time high Thursday, then fell 2.3% Friday. For clients who watched both, the sequence matters more than the math.

The Israel-Lebanon ceasefire is inverting the recency bias that geopolitical volatility built over three months. Advisors who understand the mechanism can stop the second mistake before the first one is even recovered.

Iran suspended peace talks Wednesday as Israeli strikes on Lebanon intensified. The selloff that followed demonstrated a familiar pattern: investors acting on the anticipation of bad news rather than its confirmation. That distinction matters enormously for portfolio outcomes.

Three months after the Hormuz shock triggered waves of retail selling, the TSX sits near its 2026 high. Loss aversion drove the exits. The same mechanism is now preventing re-entry.