The composite rose 0.4% to 34,980. Energy and banks fell, mining rallied even as gold itself fell, and tech extended a separate run, all on the same session's Hormuz headlines.

Iran hit two more tankers, the U.S. struck back twice, and both sides stood down ahead of Doha talks on June 30. The mechanism that actually moves a Canadian portfolio runs through war risk insurance, not the headlines.

Canada's headline CPI hit its fastest pace since December 2023 on a gasoline spike. The Bank's own core measures did not move, while the Fed's hawkish pivot just opened a different channel into Canadian prices entirely.

The CRA's own indexation math locks in the new contribution room well before the November announcement, and a separate, far more urgent deadline lands the day after this article publishes.

Iran struck two more tankers. The U.S. struck back twice. Oil recovered to $70.53 and gold fell to a four month low, because the two assets are pricing different parts of the same story.

WTI and gold have both round-tripped the entire Strait of Hormuz risk premium, but the Canadian dollar sits near its weakest level in the available 2026 trading record for a reason that has nothing to do with the war.

WTI is back to pre-conflict levels and Canadian core inflation held near 2% through the entire energy spike, yet the loonie just hit a one-year low. Those are not three stories. They are one.

The slide pulled the TSX energy sub-index down nearly 4% in Friday trading, the sharpest one-day move since the Strait of Hormuz reopening began.

Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is moving at its fastest pace since the war began, but Wednesday's attack on a cargo vessel shows how little it would take to reverse that.

The Bank of Canada's framework for easing inflation assumed a slow Hormuz reopening. Oil collapsed faster than that, but a hawkish Fed pivot is pulling in the other direction.

The CRA's family loan rate has not moved since last September, but a hawkish Fed pivot raises the odds it will before the year is out.

Gold and energy positions opened near the war's peak are now underwater as the Strait of Hormuz reopens, and the instinct to hold rather than sell has a name and a cost.

May's PCE hit its hottest annual pace since the Iran war began, and gold rallied on the news. The reason has nothing to do with the AI trade this morning's Market Desk leaned on, and everything to do with what the print did not do: come in hotter than feared.

Energy and gold names dragged the TSX down 0.5% Tuesday. A blowout Micron earnings report overnight has flipped the script for Canadian tech names heading into Thursday's session.

Oil has priced in a peaceful reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The deal that produced it expires in eight weeks, and the mechanism that follows is built on a sanctioned entity.

Falling crude is easing the inflation case for a BoC hold, while a hawkish Fed under Kevin Warsh is moving toward a hike. The July 15 decision sits at the intersection.