CPI inflation rose to 2.4% in March on the largest monthly gasoline price increase on record, and the BoC projected it will likely peak near 3% in April. Statistics Canada releases April CPI on May 19. Whatever that number shows will determine whether Macklem's rate hike language remains hypothetical or becomes operative.

New RRSP and TFSA contribution room took effect January 1. The capital gains inclusion rate is now law at two-thirds on gains above $250,000. LCGE increased to $1.25 million. With cumulative TFSA room at $109,000 for eligible Canadians and RRSP room at $33,810, the mid-year window for registered account optimization is open now.

When dramatic, vivid events dominate the news, the availability heuristic causes investors to overweight recent and visible risks and underweight gradual, probabilistic ones. The Hormuz crisis is producing exactly this pattern, and the portfolio decisions it is generating are systematically predictable.

Trump's rejection of Iran's peace proposal sent WTI back to $98 this afternoon. The morning's Economy Desk established oil as the swing variable in the BoC's June 10 decision. Carney's "fortress North America" offer from Saturday puts Canadian energy on the negotiating table at the exact moment elevated oil is threatening a rate hike. Two frameworks, one sector, opposite implications.

Oil's elevated floor is holding energy names aloft while U.S. equities close at records. The divergence between the two markets tells the story of two very different risk calculations.

A technical ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran has cooled the worst-case scenario. But the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed, the IEA calls this the largest supply disruption in market history, and oil prices have a floor the market has not fully priced.

Macklem held at 2.25% and looked through the oil shock. But April CPI is projected near 3%, the April jobs report surprised to the downside, CUSMA looms on July 1, and the BoC is threading a policy needle with no clean historical parallel.

Canada's capital gains inclusion rate is 66.67% for corporate accounts and for individual gains above $250,000, effective January 1, 2026. With markets elevated and a volatile summer ahead, the review conversation is overdue.

When geopolitical shocks dominate the news cycle, the availability heuristic inflates perceived risk and drives selling at exactly the wrong moment. Six weeks into the equity recovery, the divergence between investor sentiment and market reality has never been clearer.

Canada shed 18,000 jobs in April, unemployment rose to 6.9%, and oil is caught between a fragile Hormuz ceasefire and UAE supply math. The TSX opened lower.

A 14-point US-Iran memorandum of understanding is taking shape, with Iranian responses expected imminently. The deal's structure, not its signing, is now the variable that matters for Canadian energy and bond holders.

Canada has now lost 112,000 jobs since January, almost entirely full-time. The Bank of Canada meets June 10 with inflation running above target and a labour market that is softening faster than anyone expected.

Oil's surge since late February has generated significant unrealized capital gains in non-registered accounts. With the 50% inclusion rate confirmed for 2026 and a Hormuz resolution potentially on the horizon, the window for managing those gains is narrowing.

The vivid imagery of a closed strait, $110 oil, and 30% higher gas prices has activated a well-documented cognitive bias. Kahneman and Tversky's availability heuristic is producing exactly the portfolio distortions advisors should expect, and address.

Canada lost 18,000 jobs and the TSX closed higher. The US added 115,000 jobs and gold hit $4,725. Both things happened today and the tension between them is what advisors need to understand before Monday morning.

Cenovus posted an 83% profit jump. Suncor beat expectations. Both fell roughly 4%. The TSX is opening flat against record highs in the US. The market is not confused. It is pricing a specific future.