When the June jobs report landed Thursday, investors focused on the 57K headline. The more dangerous number is the one nobody is talking about: the 0.3-point drop in participation that made the unemployment rate fall. Kahneman called this exactly.

A jobs report that collapsed Fed hike odds should have sent Canadian yields lower and given the Bank of Canada room. It did the opposite. The bond market is now pricing Canada as a standalone inflation story, and July 15 is not what the morning said it was.

The composite had to price two American sessions in one open after Canada Day. CNQ fell 3.5%, Suncor 3.2%, while utilities and financials rose more than 1% on the U.S. jobs miss.

US-Iran technical talks in Qatar wrapped Tuesday with Qatar reporting progress on the Islamabad MOU. Oil slid to $67, down 43% from its April war peak, as the toll sovereignty dispute remains open.

The 0.5% April GDP reading was the strongest in a year, broad across 14 industries. The advance for May is already back to 0.1%, and July 15 is two weeks away.

CRA's family income splitting loan rate stays flat through September, while a narrower corporate rate quietly ticked higher.

June payrolls missed badly and the Dow hit a record the same morning. The gap comes down to which reference point the market was actually using.

On Canada Day, the two institutions Canadian advisors rely on every working day both hit milestones this spring. The CPP Fund crossed $793 billion. Cumulative TFSA room reached $109,000. Both were built here, and the system they belong to is quietly among the most complete in the developed world.

Gold had its worst quarter in 13 years. Oil fell nearly 25%. The TSX gained 6.4%. Those facts belong to different markets. By close today, it was clear they were in the same one.

On June 17, the US-Iran ceasefire set the TSX all-time high and crashed oil twenty percent in the same session. June closed flat. The interior of that flat number is one of the most violent sector rotations of the year.

Crude has rolled all the way back to pre-war levels even with Hormuz still unresolved, and Canadian energy stocks are absorbing the hit while the broader index holds near record territory.

The toll-free window in the US-Iran memorandum runs out around August 16, and Tehran has already signaled what comes next.

Two consecutive quarterly contractions usually settle the question. Governor Macklem is arguing this time is different, and the July 15 decision will show whether the data agrees.

Five-year fixed renewers from 2021 face the largest payment jump of the cycle, and the geopolitical risk premium is the reason the relief many expected has not arrived.

Investors are abandoning the asset built for exactly this moment, and the research explains why.

Oil and gold moved in opposite directions again Monday. The morning desks each explained half of it. Together they show the war premium and the rate premium have stopped moving as one trade.