Markets are selling off this morning not because anything went wrong in Beijing — but because nothing went spectacularly right. That distinction matters enormously for investors, and most of them will not make it.

The Beijing summit produced a headline the market priced as oil-bearish. But the Manulife miss and the Warsh confirmation, run through the morning's frameworks together, reveal a different and more durable pressure building on the TSX.

The TSX fell 0.5% Wednesday as technology names dropped 2% to a one-month low while energy stocks held steady above $100 oil. The divergence tells a specific story about how the Canadian market is pricing the Hormuz supply shock versus the inflation-driven rate re-rating.

The Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed to normal commercial traffic since late February. Seventy-six days in, the IEA says the market will remain significantly undersupplied until October even if the conflict ends next month. The Canadian portfolio implications run deeper than the oil price.

Kevin Warsh was confirmed as Federal Reserve chair Wednesday with the narrowest margin in the modern era. He inherits back-to-back inflation shocks and a central bank whose next move markets now price as more likely a hike than a cut. What it means for the Bank of Canada's June 10 decision.

Oil above $100 has pushed many Canadian energy and commodity positions into significant unrealized gains. With the Bank of Canada on hold and the inclusion rate debate unresolved, the planning question for advisors is whether clients should be acting on those gains now.

Two consecutive data surprises are triggering a well-documented cognitive pattern. Here is what the research shows about how investors process sequential bad news, and why the worst decisions tend to follow the clearest-seeming signals.

Wednesday's US PPI came in at +6% year over year, the hottest since 2022, pricing out any Fed cut and pushing hike probability to 39%. The TSX should be falling harder. It isn't. The reason why is also the reason to be cautious.

U.S. wholesale inflation came in at double the consensus at 8:30 AM. The TSX is absorbing the number through a familiar split: energy names firm on elevated oil, gold miners lower on dollar strength, banks uncertain on which direction rates move. The Trump-Xi summit starting tomorrow is the next catalyst.

Trump lands in Beijing tomorrow for the first U.S. presidential state visit to China in nearly a decade. Three converging files — Iran, Hormuz, and CUSMA — all run through the same meeting. The outcome affects Canadian energy, Canadian trade, and the Bank of Canada's rate path.

U.S. wholesale inflation came in at +6.0% year-over-year this morning, twice the consensus and the hottest reading since December 2022. The services component was the tell. The Bank of Canada's April 29 framework just got significantly harder to defend.

Canadian energy stocks are up 40-55% since the Iran war began. Clients holding them inside a TFSA can rebalance tax-free. In a non-registered account, the same trade triggers capital gains at a 50% inclusion rate. The window is open. Most clients don't know it.

Markets recovered from the Iran war shock weeks ago. A measurable cohort of retail investors never came back. The research explains why — and what it costs them.

April CPI came in at 3.8% in the United States, above consensus, driven by energy and a shelter rebound. Canada's own April inflation data lands May 19. The BoC meets June 10. The sequence matters more than any single number.

Gold miners surged on Barrick's earnings beat while bank stocks fell for a second session. The divergence reveals a market pricing two very different outcomes for the same oil shock.

Trump declared the US-Iran ceasefire on "massive life support" after rejecting Tehran's latest peace proposal. The channel that carries 20% of global oil remains largely closed, and Brent crude above $94 has specific portfolio implications that go beyond energy sector exposure.