Twelve major asset classes moved on Wednesday, and the direction split cleanly along exposure to the conflict. Professional analysts call it a downgrade in confidence, not a resolved crisis.

A sanctions snapback that one specialist says may end the US-Iran agreement has already added more than $5 to WTI, and the Canadian portfolio question is whether this is a contained escalation or the start of the truce's collapse.

Iran's Revolutionary Guard fired on two commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz hours after a one week de-escalation arrangement expired. WTI is still trading near a four month low. That gap between the event and the price is the story.

US-Iran indirect talks in Doha concluded Wednesday with 'positive progress' but no breakthrough. Negotiations are now formally paused until after Khamenei's six-day funeral procession ends July 9. The pause is not a setback. It is the period during which the oil market will price the next round's probability of success.

On June 17, the US-Iran ceasefire set the TSX all-time high and crashed oil twenty percent in the same session. June closed flat. The interior of that flat number is one of the most violent sector rotations of the year.

Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is moving at its fastest pace since the war began, but Wednesday's attack on a cargo vessel shows how little it would take to reverse that.

Oil has priced in a peaceful reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The deal that produced it expires in eight weeks, and the mechanism that follows is built on a sanctioned entity.

The price reaction to Saturday's closure claim was a fraction of what the same claim produced in March and April. The reason is the chain that matters for Canadian energy producers heading into the back half of the year.

The Hormuz MOU and a hawkish Fed dot plot arrived at the same time. The TSX did not average them. It picked a side.

The composite touched roughly 35,408 in the late morning, its fourth straight June record, before a firmer-than-expected Fed signal pulled the index down through the early afternoon. Materials held the gains. Energy gave back ground it had already lost this week.

WTI has fallen below $77 and Brent below $79 on the prospect of Friday's Geneva signing. The gap between that price move and the physical reality of restoring tanker traffic is the risk Canadian energy investors are not pricing.

The Iran deal drove global markets sharply higher Monday morning. But the TSX is split: energy names are selling off while financials and rate-sensitives surge. Understanding the rotation is the analysis.

Trump and Iran announced a framework overnight. The signing is Friday in Switzerland. The Strait of Hormuz will not normalize for months. Canadian portfolios need to hold both of those facts at once.

WTI dropped 4% premarket Friday. The S&P 500 added 1.75% Thursday. Nasdaq jumped 2.54%. The TSX faces the same sector rotation it saw in April, only this time the war premium has further to unwind.

Trump cancelled Thursday's strikes and said a deal is basically done. Brent fell below $86. The Hormuz re-rating that lifted Canadian energy for three months is now running in reverse.

The April 8 ceasefire between the US and Iran has effectively collapsed. US strikes on June 9 and 10 resumed the kinetic phase of the conflict. Iran retaliated against US bases in Bahrain, Jordan, and Kuwait. The Strait of Hormuz remains near-closed. For Canadian portfolios, the question is not whether the war premium returns. It is whether the market has correctly priced the duration of the disruption.