The US economy added 57,000 jobs in June against a 110,000 consensus, and Thursday's market reaction split cleanly along risk lines. The TSX edged higher on gold miner strength while the S&P 500 closed mixed. WTI held near $68.56. The week's defining move was not in equities. It was in the Fed probability strip.

Thursday's 57,000 US payrolls print sent gold above $4,100 and cut Fed hike probability for September nearly in half. The Bank of Canada's July 15 decision was already set before the data landed, and it remains set after. Understanding why is the analytical work Canadian advisors need to do this week.

A jobs report that collapsed Fed hike odds should have sent Canadian yields lower and given the Bank of Canada room. It did the opposite. The bond market is now pricing Canada as a standalone inflation story, and July 15 is not what the morning said it was.

The composite had to price two American sessions in one open after Canada Day. CNQ fell 3.5%, Suncor 3.2%, while utilities and financials rose more than 1% on the U.S. jobs miss.

CRA's family income splitting loan rate stays flat through September, while a narrower corporate rate quietly ticked higher.

On June 17, the US-Iran ceasefire set the TSX all-time high and crashed oil twenty percent in the same session. June closed flat. The interior of that flat number is one of the most violent sector rotations of the year.

Five-year fixed renewers from 2021 face the largest payment jump of the cycle, and the geopolitical risk premium is the reason the relief many expected has not arrived.

Oil and gold moved in opposite directions again Monday. The morning desks each explained half of it. Together they show the war premium and the rate premium have stopped moving as one trade.

Canada's headline CPI hit its fastest pace since December 2023 on a gasoline spike. The Bank's own core measures did not move, while the Fed's hawkish pivot just opened a different channel into Canadian prices entirely.

The CRA's family loan rate has not moved since last September, but a hawkish Fed pivot raises the odds it will before the year is out.

The CRA prescribed rate stays at 3% for a fifth straight quarter, but falling bond yields on oil's decline suggest the input that sets it may be about to move.

Governor Macklem held for a fifth straight meeting calling the moment a dilemma. Chair Warsh's first meeting leaned the opposite direction. The gap between them is now a policy variable of its own.

Bond yields have risen on this year's inflation shock, but the rate that governs income splitting loans has not moved. The widening gap is a planning window, not a footnote.

Wednesday’s signing in Versailles was priced as resolution. Friday’s cancelled follow-up, and where oil bounced when it happened, says the reopening is a negotiation, not a finish line.

The Hormuz MOU and a hawkish Fed dot plot arrived at the same time. The TSX did not average them. It picked a side.

The Bank of Canada held at 2.25% on a softening domestic economy. The Fed just told markets it may hike. The widening policy gap, not either decision alone, is what advisors need to explain.