The 55 percent reset ends a run of twenty straight quarterly increases and closes out TELUS's dividend growth program entirely. What actually changes for a client depends on whether the shares sit in a TFSA, an RRSP or a non-registered account, and the September 10 record date sets the planning window.

The index recovered less than half of Wednesday's drop. Energy split on earnings instead of oil, and technology produced the widest spread on the board, a 6.9% winner and a 12.8% loser on the same day.

The S&P/TSX Composite closed at 35,333.78, down 415.92 points a day after its record high. Canadian Natural and Cenovus both rose more than 4.5 percent on the same session TD and RBC fell more than 3, and that split is the story going into Thursday.

Celestica surged 9.5% and Constellation Software jumped 6.4% as the TSX closed at a third straight record Tuesday, while Cenovus and the gold miners lagged. Overnight, WTI reversed hard on Iran's missile attack, flipping the exact sector split that built Tuesday's record.

CME FedWatch odds for this afternoon's Fed decision have swung between 10.7% and 46.5% over two weeks. Odds for September have sat near 80% for most of that same stretch. The gap between a noisy number and a settled one is the real story heading into 2 p.m. ET.

The CRA confirmed the prescribed rate for family income splitting loans holds at 3% for a fifth straight quarter. While Washington debates a hike this afternoon, the Canadian Treasury bill auctions that actually set this number show no sign of following.

Iran's overnight missile attack on US forces sent WTI crude surging as much as six percent. Gold, the asset built for exactly this kind of shock, opened lower and recovered only to roughly where it started. The split reveals how investors are pricing the same war through two separate ledgers.

WTI posted its sharpest single-session decline since February, yet the TSX Composite closed higher, lifted by easing bond yields that helped financials and rate-sensitive names outrun energy's drag. Wednesday's Fed decision determines which side of that divergence keeps winning.

CME FedWatch prices roughly a one-in-three chance of a hike Wednesday, nearly unchanged from last Thursday's peak despite oil's steepest three-session retreat since the war began. Canada's own inflation picture is calmer, but Canadian yields are not insulated from Wednesday's outcome.

Mortgage-linked bond yields are easing this week as oil's war premium unwinds, but the CRA's income-splitting rate is anchored to a completely different curve that has not moved in a year.

WTI's third straight losing session dragged gold down with it Tuesday, ending Monday's brief decoupling. Research on the disposition effect predicts how clients who bought last week's peak will respond, and it is not by selling.

Oil's sharpest single session drop in weeks is pulling gold, bonds, and equity futures in the same bullish direction for a different reason. The TSX Composite, which closed Friday at 35,369.10, faces its steepest test of the sector rotation this month when energy names open.

The Federal Reserve's July meeting had become a genuine contest, with rate hike odds climbing on energy driven inflation fears. A seven per cent oil price collapse Monday morning arrives less than 48 hours before the vote, the same day the Bank of Canada's own deliberations summary from its sixth consecutive hold is released.

WTI's slide past seven per cent puts a specific number on five months of energy sector paper gains. Unlike 2024, the decision this time is not racing a rate change. It is racing the calendar, with Wednesday's Federal Reserve decision and Cenovus's earnings landing the same day.

The TSX fell 0.82% a day after a record close, as oil past $100 lifted energy but hit yield-sensitive banks. Energy and utilities were the only sectors to gain.

The index added 408.76 points to close at 35,369.08 Tuesday, its strongest session in weeks, as gold-linked miners outran even the energy names benefiting from still-elevated oil prices.