Investors are abandoning the asset built for exactly this moment, and the research explains why.

The composite slipped 0.21 percent Tuesday after Monday's gain, but the headline number hides a split: financials firmer on a regulatory tailwind, energy and gold names softer as their commodity supports both retreat.

Gold has fallen more than 10 percent from its June peak and WTI has slid to levels last seen before the conflict began. The anchoring bias explains why many investors still cannot see it.

Gold has fallen 25% from January's record high, and the research on anchoring and loss aversion explains why that decline feels worse than the metal's underlying case.

Monday's selloffs in oil and gold read as one Iran story. They are two separate mechanisms landing on the same trading day, and only one of them touches the number that actually matters for advisors this autumn.

WTI's slide toward the mid 70s and a stronger US dollar are hitting Canadian sectors very differently this week. The mechanism behind the divergence, and what it means heading into Monday's open.

The Iran deal drove global markets sharply higher Monday morning. But the TSX is split: energy names are selling off while financials and rate-sensitives surge. Understanding the rotation is the analysis.

The April 8 ceasefire between the US and Iran has effectively collapsed. US strikes on June 9 and 10 resumed the kinetic phase of the conflict. Iran retaliated against US bases in Bahrain, Jordan, and Kuwait. The Strait of Hormuz remains near-closed. For Canadian portfolios, the question is not whether the war premium returns. It is whether the market has correctly priced the duration of the disruption.

Iran and Israel exchanged strikes over the weekend and re-established a ceasefire by Monday. The Strait of Hormuz remained closed throughout. The war premium in oil is not a spike. It is a floor.

One hundred days into a war that has paralyzed the world's most important energy chokepoint, the Canadian financial landscape has been reshaped in ways that the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz will not fully undo.

The TSX closed at 34,769 on Friday, up 0.73%, as financials, tech, and gold miners advanced while the energy sub-index fell 1.16%. The S&P 500 posted its ninth consecutive weekly gain, closing at 7,580. The Dow crossed 51,000 for the first time. The AI earnings cycle and the ceasefire trade are pulling the two markets in the same direction for opposite reasons.

Oil fell sixteen percent and a war stayed open, yet Canadian equities closed May at record highs. The months data reveals an index that quietly relocated its risk from the oil price to the rate path.

The day's synthesis: TD and NBC delivered the earnings the market needed. Then U.S. PCE inflation and the Hormuz MOU status together produced a closing read the morning could not have anticipated.

Trump's "largely negotiated" deal framework has sent oil prices down more than 10% this week and lifted the TSX. The chain of consequence for Canadian portfolios runs through what the agreement leaves unfinished.

The TSX gained 248 points Thursday on ceasefire optimism and easing Treasury yields. Friday morning opens flat as Brent pulls back to $104.52 on the same optimism. The pattern has now repeated three times in six weeks, and the market is pricing resolution that the physical supply data keeps contradicting.

The April 8 U.S.-Iran ceasefire has held in name while intermittent fighting has continued since May 4. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed. Understanding the structure of the talks tells advisors more about the range of outcomes than any single diplomatic headline.