The April 8 U.S.-Iran ceasefire has held in name while intermittent fighting has continued since May 4. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed. Understanding the structure of the talks tells advisors more about the range of outcomes than any single diplomatic headline.

Statistics Canada releases March retail trade data today. The advance estimate called for a 0.6% gain. Whatever the actual print, it lands inside a monetary policy environment where the Bank of Canada is watching consumer spending data with unusual attention.

Canadian energy names have surged 40% or more since March. Clients sitting on those gains outside registered accounts face a decision with real tax consequences. The planning window is open now, and most advisors haven't started the conversation.

Every rumour of a deal sends oil prices lower and energy stocks higher. Behavioural finance research explains why this pattern is dangerous, and why advisors who understand it are positioned to prevent a costly mistake.

Oil bounced 3-4% on Khamenei's uranium edict, but Canadian energy stocks barely moved. That divergence tells you exactly what the market is betting on -- and what happens if it's wrong.

The TSX gained 1.25% Tuesday, but the sector split was the signal: financials up 1.85%, energy down 2.34%. The market is not betting on prolonged disruption. It is pricing a resolution.

Iran is reviewing a U.S. peace proposal. The UAE pipeline bypass is 50% built. ADNOC's CEO says normalization takes four months minimum even if conflict ends today. For Canadian energy investors, the question is no longer if the strait reopens but what the price floor looks like when it does.

Canada's April CPI came in at 2.8%, below the consensus of 3.1%. The more consequential number was buried underneath it: core inflation fell to a five-year low. That split creates an unusually difficult June 10 decision for the Bank of Canada.

Canadian energy stocks are up 50-plus percent since March. The TFSA is the only account where booking those gains and rotating the proceeds costs nothing in tax. The window will not stay open indefinitely.

When markets bounce on ceasefire optimism, a well-documented psychological mechanism pushes investors toward a mistake they will regret the moment the next headline arrives.

WTI below $100 and core CPI at a five-year low handed the Bank of Canada its clearest signal yet. The bond market saw it. The currency saw it. The equity market told a more complicated story than the headline suggested.

Energy gained 2.3%. Mining lost between 2% and 6%. Financials dropped. Tech retreated. The index nearly flat is an arithmetic accident produced by one sector offsetting everything else. The US 30-year yield at a 19-year high is what drove the session.

Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE convinced Trump to stand down from a planned Tuesday strike on Iran. The ceasefire is alive. The Strait of Hormuz remains closed. For Canadian energy investors, the calculus depends on which scenario resolves this standoff: a deal in weeks, or stalemate through the summer.

Core inflation cooled to 2.1% in April, handing the Bank of Canada the cover it needs to hold at its June 10 meeting. The harder question is the one the data does not answer: the Bank's April MPR assumed Brent oil at $90. It is at $111.

Canada's 5-year bond yield is at 3.3% and climbing. Over one million Canadians renew this year. The planning question isn't just about rate selection. It's about which accounts should be bearing the fixed income exposure, and how renewal payment shock intersects with registered account deployment.

Gold stayed near $4,500 Tuesday while Canadian miners shed 2% to 6%. The divergence is not a market anomaly. It is the availability heuristic doing what it always does: overwriting the correct frame with the most recent one.