Inflation accelerated on energy. Core held just above 2%. The BoC said it would look through the shock. That position is getting harder to maintain as the Hormuz closure drags into its fourth month.

BMO and Scotiabank beat estimates this morning. The wealth management surge inside those results is a planning signal, not just a market story.

When markets fall hard on geopolitical shock, investors withdraw from TFSAs to move to safety. The recontribution mistake is the predictable next step, and it costs them in ways they never see coming.

Oil fell more than 10% this week as Hormuz de-escalation advanced. The TSX financials fell with it. That contradiction contains the most important setup of the next 48 hours.

Monday's 1% TSX gain happened without US participation. Tuesday's session -- the first with both markets open since the Iran framework -- will test whether the relief trade holds or overshoots.

Trump's "largely negotiated" deal framework has sent oil prices down more than 10% this week and lifted the TSX. The chain of consequence for Canadian portfolios runs through what the agreement leaves unfinished.

April CPI hit 2.8% on war-premium energy costs, yet core inflation fell to a five-year low. The Iran MOU may resolve the contradiction -- but it creates a new one for the Bank of Canada ahead of June 10.

A ceasefire framework that could reopen the strait within 60 days changes the math for clients sitting on war-premium gains in energy and gold. The planning window is narrower than it looks.

When geopolitical relief rallies arrive, investors sell their winners and hold their losers. The research explains why, and what it costs.

WTI fell toward $91 today as Iran deal proximity reshaped the energy market faster than most May frameworks assumed. The GoC 5-year eased to 3.12%. Canadian bank Q2 earnings begin Tuesday. These three facts, held together, produce a conclusion none of the morning desks could reach individually.

WTI's 5% peace deal drop hits energy -- 17% of the TSX -- but hands a tailwind to financials, consumer, and rate-sensitives. Whether the index holds near its all-time high depends on which side of that trade wins Monday. Bank earnings this week are the next catalyst.

Trump's "largely negotiated" declaration is the third major diplomatic signal since March to send oil lower. Each prior signal reversed. The Strait is still closed. Iran's negotiators are in Doha today still disputing its status. The portfolio implication is not what the headline suggests.

WTI's 5% decline on peace deal headlines shifts the Bank of Canada's June 10 decision framework -- but only if the drop holds. Macklem's April 29 baseline assumed Brent at $90 in Q2. That assumption is now being tested in real time.

WTI's 5% drop on Iran peace deal news creates a specific and immediate planning conversation for clients holding appreciated Canadian energy positions outside registered accounts. The tax math is real. The account location decision matters more than whether to hold or sell.

When peace deal headlines send oil prices down 5%, investors with energy gains face a specific cognitive trap. The same bias that made them hold losers too long now makes them lock in winners too early.

The TSX gained 248 points Thursday on ceasefire optimism and easing Treasury yields. Friday morning opens flat as Brent pulls back to $104.52 on the same optimism. The pattern has now repeated three times in six weeks, and the market is pricing resolution that the physical supply data keeps contradicting.