Brent crude gained about 5 percent after simultaneous strikes on Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar and Jordan, a fraction of the surge that followed the war's opening moves in February. The TSX closed the week near its highs anyway.

Iran's strikes reached Qatar and Jordan for the first time this week, yet WTI eased for a second straight day. Why the actual tail risk for Canadian energy exposure is not the headline count of countries involved, but a genuine halt in Hormuz shipping.

Twelve major asset classes moved on Wednesday, and the direction split cleanly along exposure to the conflict. Professional analysts call it a downgrade in confidence, not a resolved crisis.

Thursday's escalation was larger than Wednesday's by CENTCOM's own count, and equity futures rose anyway. The pattern has a name in behavioural finance, and it is worth naming before the Bank of Canada's July 15 decision.

A sanctions snapback that one specialist says may end the US-Iran agreement has already added more than $5 to WTI, and the Canadian portfolio question is whether this is a contained escalation or the start of the truce's collapse.

WTI is up about a percent from Monday's four week low after Iran's Revolutionary Guard fired on two vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, the first breach of the June 17 memorandum of understanding. The Bank of Canada's blackout for the July 15 decision started this morning, before either the attack or the market's tepid reaction to it could enter the public record.

Iran's Revolutionary Guard fired on two commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz hours after a one week de-escalation arrangement expired. WTI is still trading near a four month low. That gap between the event and the price is the story.

Gold fell 16 percent from its April peak as the market priced a durable calm in the Strait of Hormuz. Monday night's tanker attack is a live test of recency bias, and it will play out in client phone calls before it plays out in prices.

WTI has round-tripped back to its pre-war level, but physical flow through the strait sits at about half of pre-conflict volume, and an unresolved toll dispute is the mechanism that could reopen the gap.

US-Iran indirect talks in Doha concluded Wednesday with 'positive progress' but no breakthrough. Negotiations are now formally paused until after Khamenei's six-day funeral procession ends July 9. The pause is not a setback. It is the period during which the oil market will price the next round's probability of success.

US-Iran technical talks in Qatar wrapped Tuesday with Qatar reporting progress on the Islamabad MOU. Oil slid to $67, down 43% from its April war peak, as the toll sovereignty dispute remains open.

On June 17, the US-Iran ceasefire set the TSX all-time high and crashed oil twenty percent in the same session. June closed flat. The interior of that flat number is one of the most violent sector rotations of the year.

The toll-free window in the US-Iran memorandum runs out around August 16, and Tehran has already signaled what comes next.

Iran hit two more tankers, the U.S. struck back twice, and both sides stood down ahead of Doha talks on June 30. The mechanism that actually moves a Canadian portfolio runs through war risk insurance, not the headlines.

Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is moving at its fastest pace since the war began, but Wednesday's attack on a cargo vessel shows how little it would take to reverse that.

Oil has priced in a peaceful reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The deal that produced it expires in eight weeks, and the mechanism that follows is built on a sanctioned entity.