The overnight rate stayed at 2.25% on Tuesday, the longest hold streak of the cutting cycle. Governor Tiff Macklem says tariffs are a modest inflation risk. The bigger one is sitting in the Strait of Hormuz.

A four-session trading week, Labour Day closed markets Monday, produced a war escalation, a hawkish Bank of Canada hold, and a dovish Fed comment, and none of it moved the Government of Canada 10-year yield. A single domestic jobs report did what all three could not.

Two jobs reports landed within minutes of each other and pointed in opposite directions. The Canadian and US bond curves split accordingly, and the currency reaction to Canada's miss is quietly propping up the one TSX sector most exposed to it.

The unemployment rate held at 6.4% only because the participation rate slipped alongside it, landing squarely against Governor Macklem's new willingness to raise rates more than once if inflation persists.

A single Fed governor's comments on holding rates steady moved more Canadian markets Thursday than the Bank of Canada's own inflation warning did the day before, but the bond market that actually prices mortgages was not buying the relief rally.

Inflation has risen in three of the last four months while the policy rate has not moved since October, narrowing the gap between where rates sit and where the Bank's own target requires them to be.

A hawkish hold moved the loonie by six hundredths of a cent. Gold, silver and the TSX miners moved on something else entirely: a second wave of US strikes on Iran and Iranian retaliation across the region.

Governor Macklem has attached explicit oil-price conditionality to the next rate move, while markets are pricing almost none of it.

The GoC 10-year hit its highest close since early August as a worldwide sovereign selloff overwhelmed a 2.6% oil rally, weakening the loonie and the TSX the day before Wednesday's rate decision.

July CPI came in at 3.0%, above target and rising, while an escalating trade war argues for cuts. Wednesday's decision resolves nothing; it just picks which risk the Bank tolerates longer.

A hold at 2.25% is the consensus call for September 2. The weekend's US-Iran exchange revives the same energy-price mechanism that pushed headline inflation to a war-era peak in May.

Statistics Canada delivered the strongest quarterly growth number in three years this morning. By afternoon the TSX was down anyway, tracking gold and the loonie lower on new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's first Jackson Hole speech, while Wall Street read the same remarks and rallied.

Statistics Canada releases second quarter GDP this morning, but the Bank of Canada's September 2 decision was already close to locked in before the data arrived.

Canada's benchmark yield touched a two-year high, retreated, and climbed back on Wednesday's inflation data. The path says more about the Fed than about the Bank of Canada's own case for holding.

A hot US inflation print undid four sessions of declining Government of Canada yields within hours, while equity volatility barely moved and two unrelated good-news stories pulled the TSX in different directions at once.

Canada's 10-year yield eased to 3.65% from a 26-month high as trade war escalation overrode a 75,000-job July gain in shaping expectations ahead of the Bank of Canada's September 2 decision.