The composite index closed at 35,933.27 Wednesday, down 402.34 points as base metal shares reversed the same sector gains that drove a 326 point rally Tuesday, while energy names cushioned the decline as oil held near $92.

Iran has offered to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days if U.S. military pressure eases, and Brent crude jumped 4.4% to $103.61 on the news rather than falling, because the mechanism connecting that offer to Canadian energy portfolios runs through whether the ceasefire actually holds, not through the headline alone.

The Federal Reserve raised its target range to 3.75 to 4.00% on September 16, its first hike in three years, while the Bank of Canada has now held at 2.25% for seven straight announcements, and the split traces back to how each economy is absorbing the same oil shock.

Ottawa formally cancelled the increase to a two-thirds inclusion rate in March 2025, and the rate stays at 50% for 2026, but the Lifetime Capital Gains Exemption kept climbing anyway, and the 100% capital gains inclusion built into the Alternative Minimum Tax is the change most advisors have not modelled into a large realisation yet.

The volatility index closed near 15 on Wednesday even as the TSX reversed a 326 point Tuesday gain into a 402 point drop, and loss aversion research explains why the quiet headline number is the wrong signal for what clients are feeling.

The Fed hike case is running on U.S. demand while the Bank of Canada hike case is running on crude, which turns a Hormuz peace deal into a double negative for the Canadian dollar.

The TSX Composite closed at 36,228.74 Tuesday, up 0.61 per cent, rebounding sharply from a September 16 low as technology and base metals names offset a sixth straight session of falling oil.

WTI crude has fallen for six straight sessions, from a peak of $105.83 on September 15 to $90.56 Wednesday, on hopes of US-Iran diplomacy and a Saudi pipeline workaround, well ahead of any confirmed change to Strait of Hormuz shipping.

The Federal Reserve raised its policy rate for the first time in over three years on September 16, opening a widening gap with a Bank of Canada that has now held seven consecutive decisions at 2.25 per cent.

The indexation formula behind the annual Tax-Free Savings Account limit has already produced enough built-in inflation to trigger a jump to $7,500 next year, even before the final month of data is confirmed.

The Nasdaq Composite has added more than 1,200 points since the Federal Reserve raised rates on September 16, even as named strategists flag extreme concentration and what one economist calls crazy days in the stock market.

Six straight sessions of falling crude are undercutting the fuel-cost case for further Bank of Canada hikes, while a materials rally reveals where Canadian investors are actually positioning.

Gold is down 6.1 percent from its August peak even as the Middle East conflict continues, and the mechanism is the Federal Reserve, not the geopolitics.

WTI crude gained nearly 20 percent as the Strait of Hormuz crisis intensified. The TSX energy sector gained barely 2 percent on the same day.

A 175 basis point policy gap, the widest since the cutting cycle began, traces back to two very different inflation problems.

The CRA base rate holds at 3 percent for a sixth straight quarter, and the loans set up now lock that rate in for good.