Iran's free passage commitment through the Strait of Hormuz expires in late August unless a final deal replaces it. Oil prices have already priced the resolution as done.

A 60-day US license for Iranian oil sales and a Geneva peace framework have pushed crude to a three-month low, and the Canadian energy re-rating built on a closed shipping lane is the first thing testing that move.

The price reaction to Saturday's closure claim was a fraction of what the same claim produced in March and April. The reason is the chain that matters for Canadian energy producers heading into the back half of the year.

Iran's safe passage guarantee for commercial shipping has a literal expiration date, Israel has not signed on, and a $24 billion dispute remains open. None of that is in this week's oil price.

WTI has fallen nearly 30% since the Hormuz memorandum was signed. On June 17, Trump warned bombing could resume. The market has not adjusted, and that gap is the tail risk Canadian portfolios are not pricing.

WTI has fallen below $77 and Brent below $79 on the prospect of Friday's Geneva signing. The gap between that price move and the physical reality of restoring tanker traffic is the risk Canadian energy investors are not pricing.

Oil collapsed 4% on the ceasefire. The five-year GoC barely moved. That gap is the most important signal in the Canadian market today, and nobody is talking about it.

The US-Iran agreement signed June 15 ends the blockade phase and begins a 60-day nuclear negotiation window. For Canadian portfolios, the immediate read-through is lower oil, a recovering loonie, and a BoC that can finally look past its inflation constraint. The tail risk is that the deal does not hold.

Oil down 5.5%, the 5-year yield at 3.01%, and the inflation constraint evaporating in real time. But the Fed meeting Wednesday changes the calculus before Macklem can act.

Trump and Iran announced a framework overnight. The signing is Friday in Switzerland. The Strait of Hormuz will not normalize for months. Canadian portfolios need to hold both of those facts at once.

WTI's 3% drop on Iran deal proximity is not the Market Desk story today. It is the Economy Desk story for July 15, and the Bank of Canada's communications framework has not caught up yet.

Trump cancelled Thursday's strikes and said a deal is basically done. Brent fell below $86. The Hormuz re-rating that lifted Canadian energy for three months is now running in reverse.

Trump's late-session pivot toward an Iran deal collapsed the inflation risk premium that had been holding the Bank of Canada frozen at 2.25% for five straight decisions. What the market is now pricing is not the same BoC that spoke on Wednesday.

The April 8 ceasefire between the US and Iran has effectively collapsed. US strikes on June 9 and 10 resumed the kinetic phase of the conflict. Iran retaliated against US bases in Bahrain, Jordan, and Kuwait. The Strait of Hormuz remains near-closed. For Canadian portfolios, the question is not whether the war premium returns. It is whether the market has correctly priced the duration of the disruption.

Iran and Israel exchanged strikes over the weekend and re-established a ceasefire by Monday. The Strait of Hormuz remained closed throughout. The war premium in oil is not a spike. It is a floor.

WTI broke below $88 on ceasefire headlines that haven't been formalized. The Bank of Canada speaks tomorrow with guidance built around elevated energy. The five-basis-point bond move doesn't price what Macklem now has to say.