The TSX closed at 34,769 on Friday, up 0.73%, as financials, tech, and gold miners advanced while the energy sub-index fell 1.16%. The S&P 500 posted its ninth consecutive weekly gain, closing at 7,580. The Dow crossed 51,000 for the first time. The AI earnings cycle and the ceasefire trade are pulling the two markets in the same direction for opposite reasons.

Canada confirmed a technical recession on May 29 as Q1 GDP contracted 0.1% annualized. Markets are 99% priced for a June 10 hold at 2.25%. The real question is whether a softening oil price path changes the BoC's forward guidance more than its near-term rate decision.

Five days, three simultaneous frameworks, and a TSX that ended the week higher than it started. What changed in the analytical picture, and what advisors need to carry into June.

Canada is technically in a recession. A 60-day Hormuz ceasefire extension is taking shape. WTI is at $87.20. Gold is at a two-month low. The TSX opened higher anyway, and the sector rotation explains exactly which of those four facts the market thinks is most important today.

Wednesday's 0.70% TSX decline was driven almost entirely by a single event: Iranian state media's report of a draft Hormuz MOU that the White House immediately denied. Thursday morning, after the IRGC struck a U.S. airbase overnight, oil is back up 2% and TSX futures are higher. The Dow hit a record close both days.

Tuesday's U.S. strikes in Iran collapsed Monday's peace rally. BMO and Scotiabank beat estimates this morning but the market is opening under a different set of assumptions than it held 24 hours ago.

Inflation accelerated on energy. Core held just above 2%. The BoC said it would look through the shock. That position is getting harder to maintain as the Hormuz closure drags into its fourth month.

Monday's 1% TSX gain happened without US participation. Tuesday's session -- the first with both markets open since the Iran framework -- will test whether the relief trade holds or overshoots.

WTI's 5% peace deal drop hits energy -- 17% of the TSX -- but hands a tailwind to financials, consumer, and rate-sensitives. Whether the index holds near its all-time high depends on which side of that trade wins Monday. Bank earnings this week are the next catalyst.

The TSX gained 248 points Thursday on ceasefire optimism and easing Treasury yields. Friday morning opens flat as Brent pulls back to $104.52 on the same optimism. The pattern has now repeated three times in six weeks, and the market is pricing resolution that the physical supply data keeps contradicting.

The April 8 U.S.-Iran ceasefire has held in name while intermittent fighting has continued since May 4. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed. Understanding the structure of the talks tells advisors more about the range of outcomes than any single diplomatic headline.

The TSX gained 1.25% Tuesday, but the sector split was the signal: financials up 1.85%, energy down 2.34%. The market is not betting on prolonged disruption. It is pricing a resolution.

U.S. futures are down sharply on summit disappointment. Brent crude is up 2% above $107. The TSX faces a split-market session: energy names should outperform while technology and rate-sensitives take the hit. The Canadian read is more complicated than the headline suggests.

The TSX fell 0.5% Wednesday as technology names dropped 2% to a one-month low while energy stocks held steady above $100 oil. The divergence tells a specific story about how the Canadian market is pricing the Hormuz supply shock versus the inflation-driven rate re-rating.

U.S. wholesale inflation came in at double the consensus at 8:30 AM. The TSX is absorbing the number through a familiar split: energy names firm on elevated oil, gold miners lower on dollar strength, banks uncertain on which direction rates move. The Trump-Xi summit starting tomorrow is the next catalyst.

Canada shed 18,000 jobs in April, unemployment rose to 6.9%, and oil is caught between a fragile Hormuz ceasefire and UAE supply math. The TSX opened lower.