Rising bond yields and a deal-driven drop in Canada's largest oil sands name pushed the S&P/TSX Composite to 35,445.54 on ordinary volume.

The Hormuz risk premium has shifted from missing barrels to attacks on ships, and the Canadian consequences run through the loonie, the CPI and a C$5.7 billion oil sands deal.

Houthi forces claimed a strike on Saudi Arabia's East-West Pipeline, the route built to move crude around the Strait of Hormuz entirely, the same day Oman proposed a formal Hormuz shipping mechanism. The base case still points to de-escalation, but the tail risk just moved to different infrastructure.

Energy gains booked inside a corporate portfolio this year do not touch this year's tax bill. They determine how much of next year's small business deduction survives, and the window to manage that number closes December 31.

US-Iran technical talks in Qatar wrapped Tuesday with Qatar reporting progress on the Islamabad MOU. Oil slid to $67, down 43% from its April war peak, as the toll sovereignty dispute remains open.

The composite touched roughly 35,408 in the late morning, its fourth straight June record, before a firmer-than-expected Fed signal pulled the index down through the early afternoon. Materials held the gains. Energy gave back ground it had already lost this week.

WTI has fallen below $77 and Brent below $79 on the prospect of Friday's Geneva signing. The gap between that price move and the physical reality of restoring tanker traffic is the risk Canadian energy investors are not pricing.

WTI crude has fallen more than 23% from its 2026 peak in two weeks. Clients who rode Canadian energy stocks from February to June are now facing a decision the research says they will almost certainly get wrong.

Trump and Iran announced a framework overnight. The signing is Friday in Switzerland. The Strait of Hormuz will not normalize for months. Canadian portfolios need to hold both of those facts at once.

Iran and Israel exchanged strikes over the weekend and re-established a ceasefire by Monday. The Strait of Hormuz remained closed throughout. The war premium in oil is not a spike. It is a floor.

The Israel-Lebanon ceasefire sent Brent crude down more than 3% on June 4 and reset the probability structure for Canadian energy equities. The TSX energy sub-index has outperformed the composite by a significant margin since March 4. The question today is whether that premium survives a diplomatic process that has failed four times before.

A 60-day ceasefire extension between the U.S. and Iran is taking shape today, with the Strait of Hormuz set to reopen. Trump has not signed. The deal is not done. But the direction of oil prices is already telling Canadian energy investors what to expect if it is.

Monday's peace rally erased Tuesday on fresh U.S. strikes in southern Iran. The market is no longer pricing a near-term resolution. Canadian portfolios need to be read against that new baseline.

Iran is reviewing a U.S. peace proposal. The UAE pipeline bypass is 50% built. ADNOC's CEO says normalization takes four months minimum even if conflict ends today. For Canadian energy investors, the question is no longer if the strait reopens but what the price floor looks like when it does.

Canadian energy stocks are up 50-plus percent since March. The TFSA is the only account where booking those gains and rotating the proceeds costs nothing in tax. The window will not stay open indefinitely.

Cenovus posted an 83% profit jump. Suncor beat expectations. Both fell roughly 4%. The TSX is opening flat against record highs in the US. The market is not confused. It is pricing a specific future.