The TSX Composite closed nearly unchanged Thursday even as banks fell and gold miners rallied sharply, with today's session set to turn on whether the US and Canada finalize a trade deal before tonight's tariff deadline.

A 50 percent US tariff on roughly $20 billion of Canadian goods is due to take effect at midnight unless a trade deal is finalized, and USD/CAD has spent two weeks pricing the outcome ahead of the headlines.

Statistics Canada's June trade release flagged the loonie's steepest monthly decline in nearly four years. For non-registered and corporate accounts, the tax tracking consequence splits along a line most advisors have not drawn: cash conversions get a $200 exemption, securities dispositions and corporate accounts do not.

The mandatory six-year CUSMA review formally began this week, with auto rules of origin and EV supply chains on the table. Most advisors are watching the trade angle. The more immediate planning question is what a prolonged negotiation means for the clients whose registered accounts hold US-listed securities.

The Canadian dollar's slide to a fourteen-month low against the US dollar is reshaping the currency-hedging decision, and the tax consequences of that decision differ sharply between RRSP, RRIF, TFSA, and non-registered accounts.

Falling oil was supposed to be the good news story today. By 2pm it had become the second blade of a two-sided squeeze on the Canadian dollar, and almost nobody framed it that way.