A four-session trading week, Labour Day closed markets Monday, produced a war escalation, a hawkish Bank of Canada hold, and a dovish Fed comment, and none of it moved the Government of Canada 10-year yield. A single domestic jobs report did what all three could not.

Two jobs reports landed within minutes of each other and pointed in opposite directions. The Canadian and US bond curves split accordingly, and the currency reaction to Canada's miss is quietly propping up the one TSX sector most exposed to it.

A blowout US payrolls print reverses a week of rate-cut optimism that had pushed gold toward $4,700 an ounce, and the swing reaches Canadian portfolios directly through TSX-listed precious metals miners.

Iran's strikes near Kuwait have pushed Brent from under $89 to above $95 in three weeks, and the mechanism connecting that move to Canadian portfolios runs directly through the TSX energy sub-index, not around it.

The unemployment rate held at 6.4% only because the participation rate slipped alongside it, landing squarely against Governor Macklem's new willingness to raise rates more than once if inflation persists.

CRA's Q4 2026 announcement confirms three per cent for a sixth consecutive quarter, and any income-splitting loan set up before the rate changes locks in that rate for the life of the loan regardless of what CRA announces next.

A three-session slide gave way to a sharp bounce as the same war headlines that triggered the selling also powered the snapback, and loss aversion research explains why so many investors read the sequence backwards.

A single Fed governor's comments on holding rates steady moved more Canadian markets Thursday than the Bank of Canada's own inflation warning did the day before, but the bond market that actually prices mortgages was not buying the relief rally.

Materials stocks led a rebound Wednesday even as the Iran conflict widened, and the index remains within striking distance of the record it set three weeks ago.

China alone is now taking more than 200,000 barrels a day of Canadian crude as Gulf supply risk mounts, and Trans Mountain has nowhere left to put the rest of the demand it is attracting.

Inflation has risen in three of the last four months while the policy rate has not moved since October, narrowing the gap between where rates sit and where the Bank's own target requires them to be.

The CRA prescribed rate holds steady into Q4, but for business owner clients hit by the September 8 counter-tariffs, borrowing at 3% is not the planning question that matters most right now.

A safe haven story investors have relied on for months is not holding up against this week's escalation, and the data shows exactly where the mechanism broke down.

A hawkish hold moved the loonie by six hundredths of a cent. Gold, silver and the TSX miners moved on something else entirely: a second wave of US strikes on Iran and Iranian retaliation across the region.

Canadian Natural Resources, Suncor and Cenovus climbed roughly 2% apiece as Brent extended its August rally, while Royal Bank, TD and the gold miners gave back ground on rising bond yields.

Brent has risen 4.5% in two sessions after the U.S. struck Iranian positions accused of preparing to mine the strait itself, not just harass shipping, and that distinction matters for how far the Canadian energy trade can run.