The TSX closed at 35,578.04 on a battery metals and energy rally Wednesday, while Wall Street de-risked into two earnings reports that went on to confirm the worry.

Bab el-Mandeb traffic carrying Saudi crude surged more than tenfold this year as producers routed around Strait of Hormuz risk. A new Houthi blockade threat is closing that alternative just as Iran escalates attacks on the original chokepoint.

Market-implied odds of a July 29 Fed hike spiked past 46% and have since fallen under 17%, but oil is still climbing, and that leaves Governor Macklem facing the same inflation calculus with less certainty about what Washington does first.

The prescribed rate has held at three per cent for five straight quarters, the lowest sustained level since 2022, and Governor Macklem's own comments this month put a real hike scenario back on the table.

Eleven straight nights of strikes on Iran have not stopped the TSX from climbing toward its 52-week high, and the reason why should concern anyone extrapolating the trend forward.

Trump dismissed near term Iran negotiations Wednesday and warned of strikes on Iran's nuclear facility, sending oil to a six week high. The TSX rose again anyway, the same result Tuesday's ceasefire hope produced, but the Dow, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq barely moved.

The index added 408.76 points to close at 35,369.08 Tuesday, its strongest session in weeks, as gold-linked miners outran even the energy names benefiting from still-elevated oil prices.

Three new Section 338 proclamations put a 50 percent tariff on Canadian dairy, alcohol, and select vehicle categories starting August 19, but the sectors the U.S. chose not to touch say more about where this goes next.

The Bank of Canada held for a sixth straight meeting even as headline inflation eased, while a Federal Reserve under a new chair who refuses to signal its next move heads into its own decision next week.

The Bank of Canada held for a sixth straight meeting, but the five-year bond yield that actually prices fixed mortgages just touched a two-month high, and the gap matters most for anyone renewing in the next eighteen months.

The TSX's sharpest rebound in weeks came one session after its worst close in eight, and the clients who reacted to Monday's headlines are the ones who missed it.

This morning's five desks read Tuesday as a mediation signal cooling a stable, monthlong standoff. The afternoon's real move came from a pipeline attack on the Caspian coast that none of them saw coming, and it is what actually broke gold's flat trade.

Energy led Monday's TSX sector split as crude touched a five week high, but Tuesday's mediation driven pullback in oil is the first real test of whether that leadership holds.

Yemen's Houthis have declared a maritime embargo against Saudi Arabia, threatening the Red Sea export route Riyadh has used to offset the Strait of Hormuz disruption, even as markets show their first real mediation signal in over a week.

Markets are pricing a December Fed increase with rising conviction as energy driven inflation persists south of the border, but Canada's own data point the other way, and the July 29 meeting is the first real test of the repricing.

CRA's family loan rate has held at three per cent since mid-2025, its longest stable run since the pandemic-era floor, and the government's pre-Budget 2026 consultations are a reason to model the numbers now rather than later.