Iran's strikes reached Qatar and Jordan for the first time this week, yet WTI eased for a second straight day. Why the actual tail risk for Canadian energy exposure is not the headline count of countries involved, but a genuine halt in Hormuz shipping.

Wednesday's escalation drove a synchronized selloff across equities, oil, and gold. By Thursday afternoon, four of those five moves had already reversed. The Government of Canada 10 year yield is the one that stayed put.

A single Iran headline pushed oil up and bond yields up at the same time, splitting the index into a clear winner and a clear group of losers underneath a headline decline of just under one percent.

Twelve major asset classes moved on Wednesday, and the direction split cleanly along exposure to the conflict. Professional analysts call it a downgrade in confidence, not a resolved crisis.

Thursday's escalation was larger than Wednesday's by CENTCOM's own count, and equity futures rose anyway. The pattern has a name in behavioural finance, and it is worth naming before the Bank of Canada's July 15 decision.

WTI's jump to $74.35 lifted Methanex, South Bow, and ARC Resources more than 4% while HudBay Minerals and Energy Fuels fell over 6%, a split that says more about currency and sub-sector mechanics than about the price of oil itself.

A sanctions snapback that one specialist says may end the US-Iran agreement has already added more than $5 to WTI, and the Canadian portfolio question is whether this is a contained escalation or the start of the truce's collapse.

WTI is up about a percent from Monday's four week low after Iran's Revolutionary Guard fired on two vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, the first breach of the June 17 memorandum of understanding. The Bank of Canada's blackout for the July 15 decision started this morning, before either the attack or the market's tepid reaction to it could enter the public record.

Energy and materials led Monday's pullback in Toronto while AI-driven buying pushed the Dow to a record close in New York. Tuesday's shipping attack in the Strait of Hormuz has barely moved oil, leaving Canadian energy names to open into the same soft price that pressured them Monday.

Iran's Revolutionary Guard fired on two commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz hours after a one week de-escalation arrangement expired. WTI is still trading near a four month low. That gap between the event and the price is the story.

Physical shipping through the strait has already caught up to what this morning's Geopolitical piece called a lagging recovery, but a fresh OPEC+ supply increase, not the August toll dispute, is what pulled Canadian energy names down today.

The TSX closed in on a record high, but the sector leadership behind the move signals a rate story, not an oil story.

WTI has round-tripped back to its pre-war level, but physical flow through the strait sits at about half of pre-conflict volume, and an unresolved toll dispute is the mechanism that could reopen the gap.

WTI crude fell for a fourth straight week to its lowest close since the Hormuz disruption began, yet the Canadian dollar strengthened over the final two sessions. Gold miners, not energy, carried the TSX toward a record.

US markets were dark for Independence Day, so the loonie, the TSX and the GoC curve each priced on domestic logic alone, and the day exposed a resource complex that has quietly split in two.

The US economy added 57,000 jobs in June against a 110,000 consensus, and Thursday's market reaction split cleanly along risk lines. The TSX edged higher on gold miner strength while the S&P 500 closed mixed. WTI held near $68.56. The week's defining move was not in equities. It was in the Fed probability strip.