May's 88,000-job print sent swap markets pricing three BoC hikes. Wages fell from 4.8% to 3.2%. Those two facts cannot both be right about what happens next.

The Israel-Lebanon ceasefire sent Brent crude down more than 3% on June 4 and reset the probability structure for Canadian energy equities. The TSX energy sub-index has outperformed the composite by a significant margin since March 4. The question today is whether that premium survives a diplomatic process that has failed four times before.

Statistics Canada releases May employment data this morning. Consensus expects a modest rebound from April's 18,000-job loss, with unemployment steady at 6.9%. What the number says about the Bank of Canada's June 10 calculus matters more than the headline.

With the Bank of Canada widely expected to hold at 2.25% on June 10, clients renewing this year face a defined planning window. The numbers are worse than most advisors have communicated, and the account-level strategy is more nuanced than the headline rate suggests.

Congress passed a symbolic resolution to end Trump's Iran war today. Oil fell. The TSX energy sector fell harder. The connection is not coincidence.

Canada's Q1 GDP came in at -0.1% annualized, missing by 160 basis points. April CPI hit 2.8% on energy. Core measures are at 2.0-2.1%. The Bank of Canada holds at 2.25% on June 10 with near-certainty. The analytical work is in understanding what the statement will need to do.

Two scenarios published this morning by the OECD do something the Bank of Canada has been careful not to do: they put explicit numbers on the difference between looking through the oil shock and failing to. That gap is now visible in the GoC 5-year yield. The mortgage market has not caught up.

Canada's economy contracted for two straight quarters while inflation ran above 2.5%. June 10 is almost certainly a hold. The more consequential question is what the Bank says about July 15, and whether the data has shifted its bias.

Three months after the Hormuz shock triggered waves of retail selling, the TSX sits near its 2026 high. Loss aversion drove the exits. The same mechanism is now preventing re-entry.

Canada closes at record equity highs while sitting in a technical recession. The market has already priced the outcome it wants from the Bank of Canada. The data says the Bank has no comfortable move.

Iran's talk suspension sent energy names higher and financials lower on Monday. The TSX closed at 34,734 on June 1. Tuesday opens with oil near $92 WTI and a market pricing a base-case resolution it cannot fully trust.

Tehran cited Israel's Lebanon offensive as a ceasefire violation and halted communications with Washington. Oil spiked 8% before a partial recovery. The diplomatic architecture that has kept the conflict contained is now under its most serious stress test.

Q1 GDP contracted 0.1% annualised, the second consecutive quarterly decline. The Bank of Canada meets in eight days. The stagflation problem has not resolved.

Iran's talk suspension and a 6% WTI spike are being read as an escalation. The more precise read: today moved the end-June deadline Goldman is watching by days or weeks, not by scenario. The real decision point for Canadian energy portfolios comes if July arrives with Hormuz still closed.

Canada confirmed a technical recession on May 29 as Q1 GDP contracted 0.1% annualized. Markets are 99% priced for a June 10 hold at 2.25%. The real question is whether a softening oil price path changes the BoC's forward guidance more than its near-term rate decision.

Five days, three simultaneous frameworks, and a TSX that ended the week higher than it started. What changed in the analytical picture, and what advisors need to carry into June.