A US Army Apache helicopter crashed near the Strait of Hormuz this morning. The ceasefire that broke over the weekend is holding again, barely. Oil is at $89. The TSX energy sector is up 66% over twelve months. The question Canadian advisors should be positioning for is not another escalation. It is a deal.

Missiles over Tel Aviv on Sunday night. The TSX up 0.19% on Monday. The gap between what your clients felt and what markets did is not an anomaly. It is the availability heuristic doing exactly what Tversky and Kahneman predicted it would.

Markets partially clawed back Friday's selloff on Monday. The same variable driving the recovery is the one that moved April CPI to a two-year high. Macklem's Wednesday statement will have to resolve the contradiction.

The TSX hit 35,217 Thursday, then shed 803 points Friday on a jobs report that repriced the Fed. The sector rotation inside that decline is the real story.

Clients shifting appreciated energy positions into their TFSAs are triggering taxable deemed dispositions. The loss side is worse: those capital losses are gone permanently.

The TSX hit an all-time high Thursday, then fell 2.3% Friday. For clients who watched both, the sequence matters more than the math.

One hundred days into a war that has paralyzed the world's most important energy chokepoint, the Canadian financial landscape has been reshaped in ways that the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz will not fully undo.

May's 88,000-job print sent swap markets pricing three BoC hikes. Wages fell from 4.8% to 3.2%. Those two facts cannot both be right about what happens next.

The Israel-Lebanon ceasefire sent Brent crude down more than 3% on June 4 and reset the probability structure for Canadian energy equities. The TSX energy sub-index has outperformed the composite by a significant margin since March 4. The question today is whether that premium survives a diplomatic process that has failed four times before.

June 4's ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon pulled oil prices roughly 3% lower and raised hopes for a broader US-Iran deal. The Strait of Hormuz is still closed. The distinction between a changed probability distribution and a changed physical reality is the entire analytical question for Canadian portfolios.

Congress passed a symbolic resolution to end Trump's Iran war today. Oil fell. The TSX energy sector fell harder. The connection is not coincidence.

The TSX shed 368 points on June 3, pulling back 1.05% from Tuesday's all-time high of 34,899. Energy gained 1.19% while financials lost 0.64%. The composite decline masked a rotation that reveals exactly what the market believes about the Hormuz supply floor.

Canadian energy stocks have surged 69% or more in 2026 on Hormuz-elevated oil. For clients holding those gains in non-registered accounts, the planning conversation is urgent and specific: when to realize, how to shelter, and which account type governs the answer.

Iran suspended peace talks Wednesday as Israeli strikes on Lebanon intensified. The selloff that followed demonstrated a familiar pattern: investors acting on the anticipation of bad news rather than its confirmation. That distinction matters enormously for portfolio outcomes.

The index gained 1.25% on June 2, led by financials and energy, one day after Iran suspended ceasefire negotiations. The market's ability to shrug off that headline is either sophisticated or complacent. The data argues for both readings simultaneously.

Energy positions sitting on large unrealized gains, a confirmed 50% capital gains inclusion rate, and $109,000 in cumulative TFSA room: the conditions for a mid-year rebalancing conversation are better than they have been in three years.