Three months after the Hormuz shock triggered waves of retail selling, the TSX sits near its 2026 high. Loss aversion drove the exits. The same mechanism is now preventing re-entry.

Canada closes at record equity highs while sitting in a technical recession. The market has already priced the outcome it wants from the Bank of Canada. The data says the Bank has no comfortable move.

Iran's talk suspension sent energy names higher and financials lower on Monday. The TSX closed at 34,734 on June 1. Tuesday opens with oil near $92 WTI and a market pricing a base-case resolution it cannot fully trust.

Iran's talk suspension and a 6% WTI spike are being read as an escalation. The more precise read: today moved the end-June deadline Goldman is watching by days or weeks, not by scenario. The real decision point for Canadian energy portfolios comes if July arrives with Hormuz still closed.

The TSX closed at 34,769 on Friday, up 0.73%, as financials, tech, and gold miners advanced while the energy sub-index fell 1.16%. The S&P 500 posted its ninth consecutive weekly gain, closing at 7,580. The Dow crossed 51,000 for the first time. The AI earnings cycle and the ceasefire trade are pulling the two markets in the same direction for opposite reasons.

U.S. and Iranian negotiators reached a 60-day MOU on May 28 that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz. President Trump has not yet signed it. And even a signed deal does not restore oil supply: Pentagon briefings put mine-clearing at up to six months, and Middle East producers need three to four months to restart shut-in capacity.

Brent crude has fallen roughly 20% from its April peak. Most Canadian investors are still anchored to the high. Understanding why is what separates a useful advisor conversation from a useless one.

Five days, three simultaneous frameworks, and a TSX that ended the week higher than it started. What changed in the analytical picture, and what advisors need to carry into June.

Oil fell sixteen percent and a war stayed open, yet Canadian equities closed May at record highs. The months data reveals an index that quietly relocated its risk from the oil price to the rate path.

Oil's 17% monthly collapse and a technical recession printed on the same day. Neither is the story. The story is what they did together to the Bank of Canada's decision calculus.

Canada is technically in a recession. A 60-day Hormuz ceasefire extension is taking shape. WTI is at $87.20. Gold is at a two-month low. The TSX opened higher anyway, and the sector rotation explains exactly which of those four facts the market thinks is most important today.

A 60-day ceasefire extension between the U.S. and Iran is taking shape today, with the Strait of Hormuz set to reopen. Trump has not signed. The deal is not done. But the direction of oil prices is already telling Canadian energy investors what to expect if it is.

The day's synthesis: TD and NBC delivered the earnings the market needed. Then U.S. PCE inflation and the Hormuz MOU status together produced a closing read the morning could not have anticipated.

Wednesday's 0.70% TSX decline was driven almost entirely by a single event: Iranian state media's report of a draft Hormuz MOU that the White House immediately denied. Thursday morning, after the IRGC struck a U.S. airbase overnight, oil is back up 2% and TSX futures are higher. The Dow hit a record close both days.

The IRGC's Thursday morning strike on a U.S. airbase and a ballistic missile launch toward Kuwait are the most serious ceasefire violations since April. For Canadian energy portfolios that sold off Wednesday on deal optimism, the overnight reversal is not a buying signal -- it is a demonstration of the scenario that has been defining this market since March 4.

When headline numbers beat expectations and equity prices still fall, the mental accounting gap between "my bank is profitable" and "my portfolio is fine" widens. That gap is where advisors earn their value.