The Beijing summit produced a headline the market priced as oil-bearish. But the Manulife miss and the Warsh confirmation, run through the morning's frameworks together, reveal a different and more durable pressure building on the TSX.

Kevin Warsh was confirmed as Federal Reserve chair Wednesday with the narrowest margin in the modern era. He inherits back-to-back inflation shocks and a central bank whose next move markets now price as more likely a hike than a cut. What it means for the Bank of Canada's June 10 decision.

Wednesday's US PPI came in at +6% year over year, the hottest since 2022, pricing out any Fed cut and pushing hike probability to 39%. The TSX should be falling harder. It isn't. The reason why is also the reason to be cautious.

U.S. wholesale inflation came in at +6.0% year-over-year this morning, twice the consensus and the hottest reading since December 2022. The services component was the tell. The Bank of Canada's April 29 framework just got significantly harder to defend.

April CPI came in at 3.8% in the United States, above consensus, driven by energy and a shelter rebound. Canada's own April inflation data lands May 19. The BoC meets June 10. The sequence matters more than any single number.

CPI inflation rose to 2.4% in March on the largest monthly gasoline price increase on record, and the BoC projected it will likely peak near 3% in April. Statistics Canada releases April CPI on May 19. Whatever that number shows will determine whether Macklem's rate hike language remains hypothetical or becomes operative.

Trump's rejection of Iran's peace proposal sent WTI back to $98 this afternoon. The morning's Economy Desk established oil as the swing variable in the BoC's June 10 decision. Carney's "fortress North America" offer from Saturday puts Canadian energy on the negotiating table at the exact moment elevated oil is threatening a rate hike. Two frameworks, one sector, opposite implications.

Macklem held at 2.25% and looked through the oil shock. But April CPI is projected near 3%, the April jobs report surprised to the downside, CUSMA looms on July 1, and the BoC is threading a policy needle with no clean historical parallel.

Canada shed 18,000 jobs in April, unemployment rose to 6.9%, and oil is caught between a fragile Hormuz ceasefire and UAE supply math. The TSX opened lower.

Canada has now lost 112,000 jobs since January, almost entirely full-time. The Bank of Canada meets June 10 with inflation running above target and a labour market that is softening faster than anyone expected.

Canada lost 18,000 jobs and the TSX closed higher. The US added 115,000 jobs and gold hit $4,725. Both things happened today and the tension between them is what advisors need to understand before Monday morning.

The BoC held at 2.25% and said both cuts and hikes remain on the table. That is not a hedge. It is a precise description of the most difficult monetary policy environment in a generation.

Statistics Canada releases April employment data tomorrow. With the BoC holding at 2.25% and a wave of mortgage renewals hitting at rates far above what borrowers locked in, the jobs number matters more than usual.

The S&P 500 hit a new all-time high today and sold off. Canada’s 5-year bond yield rose on a peace-optimism day when it should have fallen. Held together, these two signals answer the question your mortgage renewal clients will ask tomorrow morning.

Statistics Canada reported a modest March rebound in the Labour Force Survey released at 8:30 AM this morning, ending a two-month run of job losses to start the year

The Bank of Canada holds at 2.25% on April 29 -- near certainty. Markets price the probability of no change at 96.5%. The more consequential question is what the accompanying Monetary Policy Report si